Donald Trump pumps his fist moments after an assassination attempt.
In 1992, voters sent a record number of women to Congress, leading the media and political scientists to call it the “Year of the Woman.”
When the final votes are counted in the 2024 election, we might have a new way of referring to the 2024 election: The Year of the Man.
President-elect Donald Trump won men by 10 points this year, according to early exit polls, a result that could change once the final votes are tallied. Vice President Kamala Harris, meanwhile, seemed to win women by 10 points — but if the exit polls are correct, she lost ground with women compared to Biden’s 2020 results. The exit polls also suggest a rightward shift for Latino men. In marshaling men’s votes, and holding on to a slim majority of white women, Trump was able to overcome his weaknesses with the broader swath of female voters and build a dominant lead, allowing him to decisively capture the presidency.
Exit polls are notoriously unreliable, and it will likely be days before we have a clear sense of how Trump won. But there’s no denying that Trump tailored his campaign to appeal to men. Trump spent the months leading up to Election Day engaging in intense outreach to male voters, appearing on podcasts and doing interviews with influential media figures like Joe Rogan, Logan Paul, and Theo Von. He portrayed himself as a strong leader capable of restoring the nation’s lost glory — returning it, in other words, to a time when men were undisputedly at the top of the social hierarchy. After a man attempted to assassinate the former president at a rally this summer in Pennsylvania, Trump stood defiantly with blood on his face and his fist raised in the air, projecting an air of strength that was praised as iconic. Throughout the campaign, Trump demonstrated the aggressiveness that has defined his life in the public arena, relentlessly attacking his Democratic opposition, the media, and anyone he deemed insufficiently supportive.
Trump specifically sought to get young men of all races and men without a college education to the polls. It was a risky strategy because the voters Trump was seeking have historically been among the most difficult to mobilize. But in appealing to them, Trump hoped to pull off another win similar to that of 2016, when he won men by 11 points. In 2020, Biden was able to defeat Trump in part by erasing his large advantage with male voters. This year, it seems, Trump won men back.
There are many reasons why male voters have been dissatisfied in recent years and might have been receptive to his messaging. Inflation has made the cost of living painful for millions of people post-pandemic. Men are falling behind women in education. Their wages are stagnating or declining as women’s wages grow, and fewer of them are working. They are struggling with an epidemic of loneliness that doesn’t seem to be affecting women the same way. Feminism has gone mainstream, making some men feel like they aren’t as valued.
What lessons should women take from this election? The polls leading up to the election showed a massive gender gap, with women preferring Kamala Harris by double digits and men preferring Donald Trump by the same. Since 1980, female voters have preferred Democrats, and in general, they have registered and voted in greater numbers than men.
Trump’s struggles with women were largely of his own creation. As a candidate in 2016, he was accused by multiple women of sexual assault, and was caught on tape bragging about sexual assault. It wasn’t enough to dissuade voters from electing him. As president, he appointed the Supreme Court justices who helped overturn federally protected abortion rights. Now, there are abortion bans in more than 20 US states, including some that don’t make an exception for victims of rape and incest. Last year, Trump was found legally liable for rape. He has repeatedly criticized women he doesn’t like, including Kamala Harris and Rep. Nancy Pelosi, in crude, sexist, and vulgar terms. In the days leading up to the election, recordings of the convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein calling Trump his closest friend became public.
None of it was enough to convince voters not to give him another shot at the most important job in the country. It seems that his winning coalition included white women, a majority of whom voted for Donald Trump in 2024, according to exit polls, just as they did four years ago.
For a very real moment, it looked as though female voters, as a broader, multiracial group, might help send a Democrat to the White House, like they did in 2020.
In the end, it wasn’t enough. American voters have now twice chosen Trump over eminently qualified women.
The last time Trump won, women took to the streets in a historic protest. In the next election cycle, the United States elected more women to Congress than ever before. That helped pave the way for a new generation of women leaders, including the six women who ran for president as Democrats in 2020. It’s possible that will happen again.
Ultimately, it will take several more days to tally the final votes, and figure out what they mean. But one conclusion seems obvious. Donald Trump ran a campaign geared toward dissatisfied men. It worked.
vox.com