Tools
Change country:

Democrats’ Immigration Problem

Subscribe here: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | YouTube | Overcast | Pocket Casts

In the days after the election, Representative Ritchie Torres, who represents a district in the Bronx, piled onto the complaints about his party. He argued they are too responsive to the “far left” and have “managed to alienate historic numbers of Latinos.” They were spouting “ivory-towered nonsense” that the working class wasn’t buying. As a series of tweets, the theory is superficial. Kamala Harris—and even Joe Biden—have not been especially beholden to the far left, either in their policies or in their presentation. Harris did not lean into her identity nearly as much as, say, Hillary Clinton did in her campaign. And Bidenomics was aimed at the working and middle class.

But Torres’s conviction, it turns out, comes from a deeper place. Torres is 36, Afro Latino, and represents a district that is more than 50 percent Latino and working class to poor. He grew up poor himself and did not graduate from college. It’s by now a very old stereotype, he says, to assume that Latinos are pro-immigration. In his experience, the perception of New York being overrun by undocumented immigrants is a preoccupation among his constituents, and ignoring their worries about this issue, and the state of the economy, is what he believes caused urban neighborhoods to shift rightward.

In this episode of Radio Atlantic, we hash out the “Democrats are too woke” theory and talk about Torres’s ideas of how the Democrats should change their approach to immigration.

The following is a transcript of the episode:

Hanna Rosin: Donald Trump lost New York, like everyone thought he would. So that’s not news. What is, though, is how much better he did in the city than last time. Manhattan moved to the right by five points, Brooklyn by six, Queens, where I grew up, by 11—11 points! As my Trump-voting brother bragged to me: “It was a shellacking.”

I’m Hanna Rosin. This is Radio Atlantic. New York, Miami, Chicago, Philly, Dallas, Detroit all shifted right. Trump’s message seemed to especially land in urban, working-class neighborhoods, where immigrants and people of color live.

Now, there are lots of reasons the country shifted rightward, and we’ll probably be talking about them for a while. But these are neighborhoods that have voted reliably Democratic. So the shift is noticeable and surprising, although not to this person.

Ritchie Torres: For me, the far left is a gift to Donald Trump. And it will be the gift that will keep on giving until there’s a serious reckoning with the results of the election.

Rosin: This is Congressman Ritchie Torres. He represents a district in the Bronx, which, by the way, shifted right by 11 points. He, like many people, has a theory for why Trump won.

The day after the election, he tweeted: “Donald Trump has no greater friend than the far left, which has managed to alienate historic numbers of Latinos, Blacks, Asians, and Jews from the Democratic Party with absurdities like ‘Defund the Police’ or ‘From the River to the Sea’ or ‘Latinx.’ … The working class is not buying the ivory-towered nonsense that the far left is selling.”

Now, this is not an original take. Lots of people last week were screaming at the Democrats some version of “woke is broke”—that’s how Maureen Dowd put it, at least. But Torres has some authority on the subject that other people lack: He’s young—36. He’s Afro Latino. He’s gay. He grew up poor. And he didn’t finish college.

He’s also a proud Democrat representing a district that’s over 50 percent Latino. To him, what happened seems pretty obvious.

Torres: You know, the main reason we lost was inflation and immigration. And on the subject of immigration, I do believe we swung the pendulum too far to the left.

Rosin: When I think of Kamala Harris, I don’t necessarily think far left. I mean, she talked about being a prosecutor. She was measured on her Israel-Gaza positions. Her position on the border got more moderate. So far left does not necessarily, to me, describe what happened in the last election.

Torres: I am not suggesting that Kamala Harris is far left. So take as an example, “defund the police.” It was never the case that the majority of the Democratic Party endorsed “defund the police,” but the far left has an outsized microphone and, therefore, has an outsized impact in defining the image of the Democratic Party in the public mind.

Rosin: And you don’t think that’s because the far left is exaggerated by the right? I mean, that the right has a megaphone making it seem like the far left is the Democratic Party when neither Kamala Harris nor Joe Biden are especially far left or advocate far-left policies?

Torres: Can you make that argument with respect to immigration?

Rosin: Yeah, immigration is an exception. You’re right about that. I mean, I was thinking about—

Torres: It’s the exception that cost us the election.

Rosin: Yeah. I was thinking about working-class policies because if I think about actual policies—because you talk a lot about policies versus messaging—

Torres: We have prosecutors in America who have swung the pendulum too far to the left and have been rejected by voters in blue states.

Rosin: Mm-hmm.

Torres: So we can blame the voters. We can claim that the voters are misogynist and white supremacist. We could blame Fox News and the New York Post. But those institutions have always been with us in recent political history.

Rosin: Although never as mobilized as they are now. I mean, there is a concerted effort to make the Democrats seem like its most extreme version, and that effort is well funded, well coordinated, and very effective.

Torres: I’ll take an example of the issue of Israel, right? I’m known to be strongly pro-Israel.

Rosin: Right.

Torres: There’s not a Republican in the country that could caricature me as anti- Israel because I make it crystal clear where I stand. And rule No. 1 in politics is: If you do not define clearly what you stand for, others will define it for you. And I often feel like the image of the party is defined not by the center left, which is the heart of the party, but either by the far right, in the form of the New York Post and Fox News, or the far left.

Rosin: So where do you stand? What would you say publicly and loudly about where the Democratic Party should be?

Torres: The Democratic Party should stop pandering to a far left that is far more representative of Twitter and TikTok than it is of the real world. And it should start listening to working-class people of color. And we have to take positions that are aligned with the priorities of working-class people of color.

Look—take the issue of immigration. I’m strongly pro-immigration. For me, the more the merrier. I see immigration as the driver of entrepreneurial and the essential workforce of America. But I’m also self-aware enough to know that I’m considerably to the left of the country. And you have to meet people where they are.

You cannot impose your ideology on the majority of the American people. You know, as elected officials, we are constrained by public opinion.

Rosin: This rightward drift we now know in New York happened in Washington Heights, the West Bronx, Queens, which is where I grew up. It’s working-class communities of color. So how do you explain that? Is it all immigration? What is that?

Torres: Look—for me, what was most troubling was not only the fact that Donald Trump won but how he won. Not only did he crack the blue wall in the industrial Midwest, but he’s beginning to crack the blue wall in urban America. You know, he came within five points of winning New Jersey.

Rosin: Right.

Torres: He came within 12 points of winning New York. He won nearly 30 percent of the vote in the Bronx, which is one of the most Democratic and Latino counties in America. And keep in mind that the trends that we are seeing unfold long predate the 2024 election. Donald Trump made inroads among voters of color, particularly Latinos, in the 2020 election. And he decisively built on those gains in the 2024 election, but he did not begin those gains in the 2024 election.

Rosin: So you think it’s police and immigration?

Torres: The main reason is inflation and immigration and public safety. But on the subject of inflation, we were a victim of circumstances—like, supply-chain disruptions during COVID led to high inflation. And when you’re the incumbent party in power, you’re blamed for what happens, fairly or unfairly. And to be blamed for inflation is a political death sentence. So that, to me, is not the fault of the party. Inflation is a global phenomenon with global causes. But immigration is different. I do feel there was political malpractice that led to our loss of credibility on the issue of immigration.

You know, since 2022, there has been an unprecedented wave of migration, whose impact was felt not only at the border but in cities like New York, where the shelter system and the social safety net and municipal finances were completely overwhelmed. You know, in December of 2023, Quinnipiac reported that 85 percent of New Yorkers were concerned about the impact of the migrant crisis on New York City.

Despite clear signs of popular discontent, the Biden administration waited two and a half years before issuing an executive order regulating migration at the border. And by then it was too late. The political damage had been done. The Republicans had successfully weaponized the issue against us.

Rosin: Okay. This is helpful. Your critiques come across on Twitter as broad critiques, the sort of general, broad critique that we don’t speak to the working class. And there are parts of that that don’t totally make sense to me, but I think you’re narrowing that to a couple of specific and important issues.

Torres: Well, I think if you—first, it’s Twitter, so I’m constrained by the limits of tweets. But I would recommend that you read all the commentary I’ve made, not simply one tweet that gained more than 3 million views. The first tweet I sent out was about just the complicated electoral environment that we were entering.

Vice President Harris was at a structural disadvantage in an antiestablishment atmosphere. The majority of Americans disapproved of the Biden administration. The majority of Americans feel that America is on the wrong track or heading in the wrong direction. And the majority of Americans feel that they are worse off today than they were four years ago.

That is an insurmountable challenge, no matter who’s the nominee, right? It’s about structural reality rather than individual personality. Now, we thought that Donald Trump was so radioactive that we could overcome that structural challenge, and we were wrong.

Rosin: Did you think that, by the way? Did you also think that? Like, were you surprised?

Torres: I’m shocked but not surprised. Like, I find Donald Trump’s victory to be shocking but not surprising, because, in recent electoral history, there is no precedent for an incumbent party winning a presidential election when more than 70 percent of Americans think the country is on the wrong track or headed in the wrong direction. And so in the end, it is not surprising that Trump fatigue was outweighed by the popular discontent over inflation and immigration.

Rosin: After the break, I ask Torres how he thinks Democrats can rebuild after this loss.

[Break]

Rosin: Okay. So let’s turn to rebuilding. It seems genuinely difficult in 2024 to compile a Democratic Party that’s working-class voters plus urban, college-educated, mostly white liberals. Do you have any ideas or thoughts about how to stick those two coalitions together?

Torres: I would look to New York as a success. I mean, New York was a profound disappointment in 2022. You know, Lee Zeldin was masterful at weaponizing the words of the far left against the Democratic Party, causing congressional losses in 2022. But in 2024, we had a resounding success.

We took back nearly all the congressional seats that we had lost. We ran on the strength of strong candidates like Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi and Josh Riley and Pat Ryan. And the common thread among all of them is that every one of them is a centrist or center-left Democrat. So for me, the lesson learned there is that the road to 270 electoral votes and the road to the congressional majority runs through center left, not the far left.

Rosin: And can you say what center left sounds like? What is a center-left Democrat talking about? Are they talking about specific constituent issues? What does it look like to be responsive?

Torres: Economically populist, right? We have to convey the sense that we’re fighting for working people and that we’re holding powerful interests accountable, right? And I think that’s where the left is onto something, right? I think what we should avoid are the excesses on issues like immigration or public safety, right?

There should be nothing resembling “defund the police,” nothing resembling open borders. People do care about border security. People do care about public safety. We have to ensure that we’re on the center of those issues while doubling down on economic populism.

Rosin: So weirdly, on a national level, like an Elizabeth Warren-ish message, it sounds like what you’re talking about. So when I think of real solutions to working-class problems, I think of breaking up monopolies, real strong consumer protections. But those are big-government policies, and big-government policies are not that popular. That approach doesn’t seem to really gain traction, even though it seems like the right policy solution.

Torres: So much of politics is rhetorical, and I just feel like we have to give people the sense that we are fighting for them, right? And too often, people have the impression that we’re obsessed with a culture war. But I want to be clear: I continue to believe the main reasons we lost the election were inflation and immigration. And I disagree with Bernie Sanders’ critique. I do not think President Biden abandoned the working class. Legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act is meant to support working people. It’s meant to support America, but the benefits of the legislation in the short term are outweighed by the cost of inflation.

Rosin: So can you say how you would talk about immigration or address immigration? Because for people who are not looking too closely, it feels a little counterintuitive that, you know, a majority say—Latino or people-of-color districts and voting class—their main issue is restrictions on immigration. It seems, on its face, to be a contradiction. Now, I’m sure when you get deeper, it isn’t.

Torres: If you’re stereotyping Latinos, sure.

Rosin: Yeah, exactly. So let’s get beneath the stereotype, and, like, how would you walk through that issue?

Torres: Well, I mean, keep in mind that the most Latino county in America was Starr County, right at the border. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won it by 60 percentage points. And in 2024, Donald Trump won nearly 60 percent—a complete collapse of Latino support. Look—my view is that we do not have a messaging problem; we have a reality problem.

When the migrant crisis was unfolding, we should have responded with the sense of urgency that the public demanded of us. The public saw it as a crisis. So it’s not a messaging problem. It’s a reality problem. When there is a crisis, when there’s an emergency, when there’s a metaphorical fire, we have to extinguish the fire. We have to do everything we can to extinguish the fire, or else we’re going to pay a price at the ballot box.

Rosin: Although, it still surprises me that people would drift towards a leader who uses words like “mass deportation,” you know, or the whole “floating island of garbage” thing. Like, it still surprises me that that’s not an automatic “no.”

Torres: Again, I’m appalled by it, but I’m self-aware enough to recognize that I’m considerably to the left of the rest of the country in immigration. And here’s the danger: If we swing the pendulum too far to the left on issues like immigration and public safety, we will risk a public reaction that will make our country more right wing, not less; more restrictionist on immigration, not less; more conservative on public safety, not less.

Rosin: Got it. Okay. That makes sense. So how do you—

Torres: I just want to illustrate this point further: Before the “defund the police” movement, Republicans were becoming more open to criminal-justice reform, right? Hakeem Jeffries, who’s going to be, eventually, the speaker of the House, negotiated a bipartisan criminal-justice-reform legislation. And then after the “defund the police” movement, any hope of bipartisanship on criminal justice has all but collapsed.

Rosin: I see. So this is what you mean. You’re saying, The Democrats are allowing—or, by capitulating to some far-left language, are allowing—the Republicans to use the language against us. Like, they’re handing them a tool.

Okay. I understand what you’re saying. Just as a model, can you just tell me how you talk to your constituents about immigration? So we know what your own personal feelings are. We know that you’re listening to what they’re saying. What’s the kind of language that the Democrats could have adopted and should adopt in the future about a touchy issue like immigration?

Torres: I’m not clear the issue is language. I mean, I’m happy to answer the question, but I—

Rosin: What kind of policies? Sorry. Yes, you’re right. What kind of policies?

Torres: I mean, basic border security.

Rosin: Just talk about that. Yeah.

Torres: Like, so you cannot have a system where anyone anywhere can cross the border, declare asylum, and then remain here indefinitely.

Rosin: Right.

Torres: And there was a point at which the sheer number of people coming became overwhelming. Like, it put unprecedented strain on the shelter system and social safety net of New York City. And, you know, I know Mayor Adams came under severe criticism for excoriating the administration. But for me, the problem was not Mayor Adams complaining about the migrant crisis; the problem was the reality of the migrant crisis and the administration’s failure to address it with the urgency that the public demanded.

Look—I feel if we return to the center left on both immigration and public safety, I’m cautiously optimistic that communities of color will naturally gravitate toward the Democratic Party as its natural home. That’s my belief.

Rosin: Right.

Torres: We have to meet people where they are, or there’s a limit to how far we can deviate from strongly held public sentiment on an issue like immigration.

Rosin: Last thing I want to say is: Disinformation seems overwhelming—like, just overwhelming in a very, very coordinated way. How do you combat something like that? Like, no matter what you will say on immigration, there’ll be a disinformation campaign to skew it, turn it, whatever.

Torres: Look—we do our best to speak out against disinformation, but I’m probably in the minority here. I’m not convinced we lost because of disinformation.

Like, if you remove inflation and immigration from the table, we win the election. We win the election because Donald Trump’s net favorability has been chronically underwater. He is unpopular among most Americans, but he was seen as a change agent, as an alternative to a status quo marked by inflation and the migrant crisis. If you change the status quo, he no longer wins the election. That’s my belief.

Rosin: Okay. All right. This has been really, really helpful. I really appreciate this. Thank you.

Torres: Of course.

Rosin: This episode of Radio Atlantic was produced by Kevin Townsend and edited by Claudine Ebeid. It was engineered by Rob Smierciak. Claudine Ebeid is the executive producer of Atlantic audio, and Andrea Valdez is our managing editor. I’m Hanna Rosin. Thank you for listening.


Read full article on: theatlantic.com
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul detained at airport after mixing Ambien with booze
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul says he was briefly detained after becoming "disoriented" from mixing Ambien and alcohol before a flight earlier this month, calling his actions "a poor decision."
6 m
nypost.com
Israeli soccer fans clash with France supporters as Paris put on high alert after Amsterdam attacks
Security officials rushed to stop the fighting.
8 m
nypost.com
Andrew Tate’s rise is a reaction to the feminization of culture, claims Coleman Hughes on We Never Had This Conversation podcast
Andrew Tate’s soaring popularity with young men is a reaction to the “feminization” of culture, according to 28-year-old political commentator and author Coleman Hughes.
9 m
nypost.com
Trump plans to bring back what Dems lied and called ‘Muslim ban’ — it’s about terrorism
Not long before President Donald Trump, in his first term, issued his so-called “travel ban” on 13 countries, Abdul Razak Ali Artan drove a Honda Civic into a crowd of fellow Ohio State University students.
nypost.com
The week in whoppers: Jim Acosta denies Trump’s popular vote win, Joy Reid predicts ‘reparations for white people’ and more
Spot the difference: “The former president falsely accused the Biden administration of . . . neglecting [hurricane victims in] areas that had voted for Republicans.” — The New York Times, Oct. 4 vs. “FEMA Fires Employee for Telling Milton Relief Workers to Skip Houses With Trump Signs” – The New York Times, Saturday We say:...
nypost.com
Michigan offering 2025 No. 1 recruit whopping 8-figure NIL deal to sway him away from LSU: report
2025 No. 1 recruit Bryce Underwood is expected to get a whopping $10.5 million NIL offer from the Michigan Wolverines, who are going all in to sway him away from LSU
foxnews.com
Elon Musk Met With Iran’s U.N. Ambassador, Iranian Officials Say
The tech billionaire, a top adviser to President-elect Donald J. Trump, was reported to have discussed ways to defuse tensions between Iran and the United States.
nytimes.com
30 members of feuding NYC street gangs busted after bloody turf war that killed pregnant teen: ‘A climate of fear’
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg said Thursday that three gangs behind a bloody turf war in Inwood and Washington Heights since 2018 have been taken down.
nypost.com
Florida AG sues FEMA over ‘damning’ revelations agency deliberately ignored homes of Trump supporters: ‘Swift legal action’
FEMA's disaster of its own making keeps getting worse.
nypost.com
The Next Frontline in the Fight for Reproductive Rights
Why heartbreaking abortion trials will be a necessary staple of the next four years.
slate.com
Fed Chair Jerome Powell says no need to rush rate cuts, cites strong economy
Powell said the central bank still has faith in a continued disinflation process.
nypost.com
Behind the surprising Infowars purchase by The Onion
Satirical publication The Onion has purchased Infowars, Alex Jones' embattled brand. the Connecticut families of eight victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting and one first responder backed the purchase. Benjamin Mullin, a media reporter for The New York Times, joins CBS News with more.
cbsnews.com
We found the best Andrea Bocelli 2024 Christmas concert ticket prices
The vocally-gifted tenor will belt to the rafters at MSG on Dec. 18-19.
nypost.com
Trump picks Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead Health and Human Services
Kennedy has advised the transition team on health related-choices, sources said.
abcnews.go.com
The Democrats’ 2022 Error Message
In 2022, Democrats defied the political history of poor midterm-election results for the party holding the White House by running expectedly well in the seven key swing states—most crucially, the former “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—despite pervasive dissatisfaction with the economy and President Joe Biden’s performance. That success, ironically, may have helped seal the party’s fate in the 2024 election.Two years ago, the Democrats succeeded in quarantining the swing states and won most of the key governor and Senate races within them, even as the powerful nationwide current of dissatisfaction with Biden and the economy moved virtually every other state, red or blue, toward the GOP. If the midterms had gone as badly as many analysts initially forecast—with predictions of a towering “red wave” of Republican gains—Biden likely would have faced greater pressure to renounce running for a second term long before his disastrous debate performance in June. That might have forced him from the race much sooner, allowing a full-scale primary to take place, which would have either yielded a nominee unconnected to the administration or helped Vice President Kamala Harris establish an identity independent of Biden.By the same token, their strong 2022 result also left Democrats too confident that former President Donald Trump had become unacceptable to voters. The decisive defeats of handpicked Trump candidates such as Kari Lake, Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker, and Doug Mastriano across swing-state governor and Senate races encouraged a complacency among Democrats about the degree to which voters had rejected the former president himself. That overconfidence contributed to Democrats reacting too slowly as voters’ retrospective approval rating of Trump’s performance in office started rising through 2023. By Election Day 2024, a majority of voters in the VoteCast survey conducted by NORC said that they approved of Trump’s presidency, a level of support he famously never reached in office.As a result, the persistent discontent with the country’s direction overwhelmed the Democratic defenses in the Blue Wall and the other four swing states—North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. That allowed Trump to sweep them all, propelling him back to the White House.[Mike Pesca: The HR-ification of the Democratic Party]Before the 2022 election, the Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg was one of the few operatives in either party predicting that Democrats would avoid the supposed “red wave.” Rosenberg believed that Democrats would lose ground outside the states where the two sides were spending heavily in 2022. But, he argued, inside the states where Democrats were concentrating their organizing and advertising, they could neutralize the effect of conservative media and win elections by shifting voters’ attention to issues more congenial to the Democratic Party: abortion rights, democracy, and the extremism of Trump’s allies.Rosenberg was thus an early exponent of the “two elections” theory, which held that the electoral environment inside the swing states could be isolated from the conditions that would determine voters’ choice beyond them. Mike Podhorzer, a former political director for the AFL-CIO, was another advocate of the theory—and the two influential Democratic strategists seemed validated by the 2022 results. With most voters disapproving of Biden’s job performance, and with three-quarters of them describing the economy as “not so good” or “poor” in 2022 exit polls, the national environment did tilt to the right. Indeed, Republicans won the national popular vote in races for the House of Representatives by 2.6 percentage points, a 5.6-point swing from the Democrats’ margin in 2020.Despite that national current, Democrats did win governor’s races in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona, as well as Senate contests in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania that allowed them to maintain control of the upper chamber. (The only blemishes were Republican wins in the Nevada and Georgia governor’s races, and Senate races in Wisconsin and North Carolina.) Wins in a number of white-collar suburban House districts also suppressed GOP gains in that chamber far below expectations.“The big lesson for us here is that when we run full fledged national campaigns we can control the information environment, and stay in control of our own destiny in the most important battlegrounds in the country,” Rosenberg wrote shortly after the 2022 election.The 2024 election replicated the general rightward tilt, with most voters again disapproving of Biden and expressing negative views about the economy. As of Wednesday, Trump has improved from 2020 by about 6.6 percentage points in the national popular vote (from a deficit of 4.5 points to a lead of roughly 2.1 points); when all of the votes are counted (notably including California’s), Trump’s gain is expected to be about 5.8 points, a swing almost identical to the GOP’s improvement in the House popular vote from 2020 to 2022. And as in 2022, in the places where the parties were not heavily spending, that overall national shift widened the GOP lead in red states and narrowed the Democratic advantage in blue states.This time, though, Harris could not hold the swing states where Democrats won so many races two years ago. Harris ran somewhat better in most of the seven key swing states than she did nationally, but not nearly to the degree that the party did in 2022, nor well enough to carry any of them. Trump thus torpedoed the “two elections” theory that had underpinned Democratic hopes that Harris could still overcome Biden’s unpopularity in 2024.The Republican pollster Gene Ulm points to one reason for the change: the operational advantages that helped Democrats so much in those states’ Senate and governor races two years ago aren’t as consequential in a presidential contest. “Tactics, money, and things like that,” he told me, “are just less important in a presidential race when the news is covering it wall-to-wall.” The fact that Democrats won the Senate races in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada despite Trump’s victories in those states supports Ulm’s argument: Those contrasting results suggest that the Democratic financial and organizational advantages mattered more in those contests than they did in the presidential race. (Among the swing states that Trump won, Republicans appear, pending final counts, to have captured a Senate seat only in Pennsylvania.)[Jonathan Chait: Republican leaders are more afraid of Trump than ever]The political landscape was tougher for Harris in the swing states than for Democrats in 2022 in at least three other respects. One is that Trump turned out far more low-propensity, right-leaning voters than GOP candidates did in 2022. Across the swing states (as well as nationally), the electorate in 2024 tilted Republican much more than in 2022, as the exit polls and VoteCast both determined.The second crucial change was that Biden was even more unpopular in many of these states than in the last election: The share of voters who gave him positive ratings for his job performance compared with 2022 was eight points lower in Wisconsin, seven points lower in Michigan, and four points lower in Pennsylvania, according to exit polls conducted by Edison Research.The Democratic pollster Celinda Lake told me that in spite of all Biden’s other successes on the economy, his reluctance to acknowledge the continued pain that most working-class voters felt from inflation further alienated them from him. “One of the big differences between ’24 and ’22 was, in the effort to get credit for the economy, we sounded out-of-touch to voters, and we sounded like we were the status quo,” Lake told me. In each of the swing states, at least four-fifths of voters who disapproved of Biden voted for Trump, meaning that the decline in Biden’s approval rating from 2022 to 2024 left Harris in a deeper hole.The third big change in the swing-state environment may have been the most decisive. Far fewer of the voters in those states who were dissatisfied with the economy backed Harris in 2024 than had supported Democratic candidates two years earlier. Then, the exit polls in Pennsylvania, for instance, found that John Fetterman, the Democratic Senate candidate, lost voters who were negative about the economy by 18 percentage points; this time around, Harris lost those voters by twice as much. Then, Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, lost voters who were negative on the economy by 12 points; this year, Harris lost them by nearly four times as much. Harris lost voters who were down on the economy by at least 40 percentage points in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. In each case, that was considerably worse than Democratic candidates had performed with comparable voters in 2022.Tellingly, the Democratic Senate candidates who narrowly won in the swing states in this cycle (as well as Josh Stein, the Democrat who comfortably won the North Carolina governor’s race) all won a slightly higher share of voters dissatisfied with the economy than Harris did. To some extent, that reflected the tactical advantages Ulm stressed. But these Democrats’ success, like the 2022 results, also suggested that voters were more willing to look past their economic discontent when picking for positions other than the presidency—the office to which they assign responsibility for setting national economic policy.Jay Campbell, a Democratic pollster who studies economic attitudes as part of a bipartisan team that conducts surveys for CNBC, told me that Harris could not prevail against the widespread verdict among voters that the cost of living was more manageable under Trump’s presidency than Biden’s. “The Harris campaign did what it could,” Campbell said. “We saw evidence that her middle-class-focused messaging was memorable to voters, and was sort of addressing the issue, but at the end of the day, the current of prices being as high as they still are, was just too strong.”The greater difficulty Harris faced on the economy contributed to Democrats’ deep disappointment that, despite a big ad spend, abortion rights did not prove a more effective issue. Voters who said abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances provided crushing margins across the swing states in 2022: In governor races, Democrats won more than four-fifths of such voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and about three-fourths of them in Arizona and Wisconsin. This year, however, the exit polls found that only about two-thirds of pro-choice voters in those four states voted for Harris. That fall-off proved insurmountable for her.In the aftermath of the 2022 Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, “Democrats, and probably some independents, were much more animated by the abortion issue than they were [by] concerns about the economy,” Campbell told me. This year, that ranking reversed, particularly for the working-class white women who proved essential to Trump’s victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Trump’s insistence that he would leave abortion rights to the states probably helped him mute the issue. But the biggest factor appears to be the primacy that voters placed on the economy in their presidential vote. Previously unpublished results from the exit polls provided to me by the CNN polling unit found that a little more than one-third of voters said they supported legal abortion but were negative on the economy—and they preferred Trump to Harris by a narrow margin. This phenomenon was especially visible among blue-collar women, Lake told me: “They decided that they were going to ignore the other issues and were going to vote the economy, because they just had to get the economy going for their families.”[Eliot A. Cohen: Brace for the storm]Trump is anything but a normal candidate, but the unavoidable conclusion from last week’s returns is that most voters treated him as one. The race followed the familiar hydraulic pattern of American presidential elections: When a president of one party falls in voters’ esteem, the nominee of the other party rises. In the major exit polls, 62 percent of voters who said they were dissatisfied with the country’s direction voted for Trump—exactly the same percentage of “wrong track” voters who backed Barack Obama in the race to replace George W. Bush in 2008.Exactly how the race slotted into these familiar grooves remains a subject of debate among Democrats. Podhorzer blames the media for normalizing Trump and the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court for blocking Trump’s criminal trial for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, which might otherwise have reminded voters about the threat he poses to the constitutional order. Both exit polls and the VoteCast survey, Podhorzer notes, suggest that millions of people who voted for Biden in 2020 stayed home this year. He attributes this to ebbing concern about the MAGA agenda among voters generally resistant to it. “The thing that struck me,” Podhorzer told me, “is how alarming the lack of alarm was.”Rosenberg regrets the Harris campaign’s lukewarm effort to sell the Biden administration’s economic achievements, such as the strong job market and revived investment in manufacturing. “I think they took an enormous risk by not litigating and defending her record as vice president in this administration,” Rosenberg told me. “What she ended up getting was all the downside of the Biden record and none of the upside.”Perhaps no set of strategies or messages or alternative nominee could have overcome the discontent over Biden’s record on inflation and immigration. Still, the unusually strong Democratic performance in the 2022 elections gave the party a false sense of security about its ability to surmount widespread discontent with Biden. The surprise may not have been that Trump swept the swing states in 2024, but that the Democrats got a stay of execution in them two years before.
theatlantic.com
Sleeper Promo Code NYPOST awards up to $1,500 in bonus funds for Commanders-Eagles ‘TNF’, or any game
Sign up with the Sleeper promo code NYPOST to claim a 100% deposit match of up to $1,500 for Thursday Night Football, featuring the Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles.
nypost.com
Stream It Or Skip It: ‘Sherwood’ Season 2 On BritBox, Where A Murder Might Set Off A Turf War In Nottinghamshire
We're introduced to two new families in Season 2; David Morrissey and Lesley Manville reprise their roles from Season 1.
nypost.com
Easy flight hack can take the stress out of travel — but it’s not for everyone
"I never have to look at screens in the airport anymore," former airline employee Darby Maloney said.
nypost.com
Federal court upholds Indiana ban on puberty blockers, hormones for gender-confused minors
A U.S. appeals court upheld an Indiana law barring minors from being able to access medicines to help them transition genders.
foxnews.com
Want to see Yosemite's famed 'firefall'? Reservations open next week
Yosemite officials are starting up reservations for February weekends at Horsetail Fall in the hope of curtailing damage to surrounding areas by visitors.
latimes.com
70 best Amazon Christmas gifts to shop for everyone on your 2024 list
Tons of gifts you can get in two days (thanks Prime Shipping!)
nypost.com
LAPD seeks suspect who fled after three violent carjacking attempts in one day
The LAPD is looking for Maurice Latorre, 49, who is accused of three violent robbery attempts on Saturday.
latimes.com
Ben & Jerry’s accuses Unilever of silencing its pro-Palestinian stance
The ice cream brand, known for its activism, sued parent company Unilever, alleging it was blocked from calling for a cease-fire in Gaza.
washingtonpost.com
Fireworks cause tragic death of baby red panda at Edinburgh Zoo
Roxie, a 3-month-old red panda, died at the Edinburgh Zoo on Nov. 5 — known as Bonfire Night in the UK.
nypost.com
Emergency drought warning in New Jersey as fire rages
A fire is burning along the New Jersey-New York border as an emergency drought warning emerges. CBS News' Tom Hanson has the latest.
cbsnews.com
Miami-bound plane makes U-turn mid-flight after turbulence and technical issues
A flight that took off from Stockholm and was destined for Miami did a U-turn after the commercial plane faced turbulence over Greenland Thursday, according to a report. The Scandinavian Airlines flight was expected to take nine hours, but is now en route back to its base in Copenhagen where staffers can check on technical...
nypost.com
Thousands of ICE officers to be reassigned from desk jobs under Trump admin
US Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers who spent the last four years stuck behind a desk processing illegal migrants under the Biden-Harris administration are preparing to get back out into the field -- as President-elect Donald Trump and his "border czar" Tom Homan vowed to “flood” sanctuary cities with agents.
nypost.com
Car passenger shot, then dies when driver crashes steps from NJ emergency room
The two unidentified victims had been driving near the corner of Rosa Parks Boulevard and Godwin Avenue in Paterson, New Jersey, at about 4 a.m. when shots rang out, according to the Bergen Record.
nypost.com
Caitlin Clark books given away to more than 50,000 elementary schoolers
A statewide effort in Iowa has given dozens of public schools and over 40,000 2nd graders paperback children books on women's basketball phenom Caitlin Clark.
foxnews.com
Woman testified to House panel that Gaetz had sex with her when she was 17: Sources
The woman at the center of the DOJ's probe of Matt Gaetz testified to the House Ethics Committee that he had sex with her when she was 17 years old, sources say.
abcnews.go.com
Trump expected to choose vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary
President-elect Donald Trump is expected to nominate anti-vaccine activist Robert F
latimes.com
Jessica Simpson and Eric Johnson are living ‘separate lives’ as divorce rumors loom: report
"Jess and Eric very much live separate lives," claimed a source.
nypost.com
Beverly Hills High School substitute says she was fired over posts criticizing Trump, MAGA students
A substitute teacher at Beverly Hills High says she was fired after sharing posts criticizing Trump and condemning the behavior of students at a MAGA rally.
latimes.com
Tropical Storm Sara near Mexico, could strengthen and slam U.S.
Tropical Storm Sara is sitting off the shore of Honduras and Mexico and could travel to the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen over warmer waters. CBS News Bay Area meteorologist Jessica Burch has the latest forecast.
cbsnews.com
Either Way, Matt Gaetz Wins
Trump’s pick for attorney general will get to burnish his MAGA-loyalist credentials whether or not the Senate confirms him.
theatlantic.com
Powerful NYC teachers union boss flunks Gov. Kathy Hochul, Dems over ‘tone-deaf’ congestion toll
No longer the teacher's pet. New York City teachers' union president Mulgrew flunked New York's "tone deaf" Democrats for socking working class New Yorkers with a $9 congestion toll -- a week after the election where the party took a drubbing.
nypost.com
Dark powers guide dagger-sharp ‘Macbeth’ at Washington National Opera
Director Brenna Corner brings a new production of Verdi’s classic, starring soprano Ewa Płonka and baritone Étienne Dupuis.
washingtonpost.com
What to know about recess appointments as Gaetz faces Senate headwinds
A recess appointment would allow Trump to install some officials and sidestep lengthy hearings and a floor vote.
cbsnews.com
RFK Jr. expected to be tapped to lead Department of Health and Human Services
President-elect Trump is expected to tap Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, according to a source familiar with the matter.
foxnews.com
I’ve known Polymarket’s CEO for years — here’s why the FBI raid is a scandal
The FBI’s raid on the founder of the online betting site Polymarket shows that the Lawfare Era under the Biden-Harris administration didn’t die after Donald Trump’s decisive victory on Election Day.
nypost.com
Russia sends disguised troops to break through Ukraine defense, end up getting ‘destroyed’
Russian troops, including soldiers disguised as Ukrainians, briefly broke through the frontlines in Kupiansk along the northeast, a sign that Moscow is successfully pressuring Kyiv.
nypost.com
How a dorky sports accessory became the latest must-have fashion trend
If you can spare some cash, you could snag the hottest bag of the season.
nypost.com
Indiana ban on gender surgery, puberty blockers for minors upheld by court
A panel of judges on the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 Wednesday that the law’s restrictions are within the purview of the Indiana General Assembly
nypost.com
Judge puts off Jan. 6 trial after defendant points to possible Trump pardon
The judge is the first to postpone a Jan. 6-related trial scheduled for the post-election transition period.
washingtonpost.com
Person trapped beneath building collapse rubble, Kentucky officials say
Officials provided an update after a building collapse trapped at least one person under rubble in Louisville, Kentucky. Here's the latest confirmed information.
cbsnews.com
Sleazy lawyer, 72, suspended for tawdry act in his office with ‘vulnerable’ client facing murder rap: ruling
“CL approached him and got close to him, and extended her hand towards the respondent’s crotch,” the court papers detailed. “The respondent testified that he ‘let the situation continue to unfold.’”
nypost.com
With great cooking and friendly service, Evelyn Rose charms in Vienna
At Evelyn Rose in Vienna, owners Sam Schnoebelen and chef Nick Palermo remember their grandmothers and pamper their patrons.
washingtonpost.com
FTC to investigate Microsoft’s cloud unit on antitrust concerns in last hurrah under Biden
The agency, led by anti-Amazon FTC Chair Lina Khan, is looking into claims that the company is abusing its large market share, according to a report.
nypost.com