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Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris walks onstage as she arrives for a campaign rally at Michigan State University’s Jenison Field House in East Lansing, Michigan, on November 3, 2024. | Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images This summer, when it seemed increasingly likely that President Joe Biden would drop out of the 2024 race, a pair of questions dominated media coverage and political punditry. Should Vice President Kamala Harris succeed him as the Democratic nominee? Or was there a better candidate out there who could put up a tougher fight against Donald Trump? Some in the party floated the idea of a mini-primary. Ultimately, that open process never happened — Harris and her allies moved quickly to secure the delegates needed to clinch the nomination before the convention, no one stepped up to challenge the vice president, and the Democratic base quickly rallied behind Harris. Since then, there have been, broadly speaking, two ways to view how her presidential campaign has unfolded. One is more skeptical about how Harris has fared. Here she is, running against a twice-impeached, historically unpopular, convicted felon former president – and it’s still a toss-up. Another view offers a more charitable interpretation of the Democratic campaign. After an aging, historically unpopular incumbent president badly damaged his party’s hopes of winning, Harris clawed her side back into a competitive race. She mostly restored the levels of support her party needs among nonwhite, college-educated, and young voters, while holding together a coalition that spanned from former Vice President Dick Cheney to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. And she did it as the standard-bearer for an incumbent political party at a time when one of the only hard-and-fast trends of world politics is that ruling parties are being punished in the post-Covid inflationary period. Here’s the case for each perspective. The case that Harris is fumbling The contention that Harris should be performing better is predicated on what some see as the unique awfulness of Donald Trump. With Biden out of the race, it’s now Trump who is the historically unpopular presidential candidate, whose campaign’s ground game is virtually nonexistent, who has been consistently outspent by the Democrats, and whose closing weeks have been filled with chaos and late-breaking scandals. The argument that Harris has underperformed tends to rest on two different charges: that she has played it too safe and that she has played it too vague.  The “safe” charge relates to her perceived pivot toward the center to court moderates and disaffected Republicans. Progressives argue that this has cost her support and energy from the political left. Her embrace of Liz and Dick Cheney, for example, recently reignited criticism from the anti-war left and speculation that it could backfire with Arab American voters.  The same critique has been made regarding her stance on Gaza. Harris’s refusal or inability to distance herself from the Biden administration’s position, with the exception of a few nods to Palestinian suffering in speeches and on the debate stage, has lost her support from the left flank. Zooming out a bit, critics point out that Harris’s centrist pivot on the campaign trail reflects a bigger problem: that Harris has never been clear about why she wants to be president, what she actually believes in, or where she stands on certain policies. She’s avoided explaining changes in policy positions and avoided talking to the press, opting instead for friendly settings, alternative media, or influencers and content creators on social media.  Just this week, an Axios report offered the latest instance of Harris’s avoidance strategy: When asked about Harris’s stance on 12 policy matters she had previously supported — like ending the death penalty at the federal level, eliminating the Senate filibuster, or providing reparations to Black Americans – the campaign declined to comment. And so, on the eve of the election, Harris remains neck-and-neck with Trump — whose favorability ratings are now the highest they’ve been since he left office, despite millions spent in advertising against him. The case that Harris is beating expectations The more positive assessment of Harris’s campaign holds that, given where Harris started and what she’s facing, running neck-and-neck is a feat, not a failure. As the New York Times’s Nate Cohn has written, the national environment in general is one with all the ingredients for a Republican landslide and a conservative cultural rebuke. Americans really dislike Joe Biden. They are upset with the direction the country is heading. Republicans have an edge in national party identification. And Republicans tend to have an edge on most of the issues that seem to matter to voters, specifically the economy and immigration. Gallup recently framed it this way: “Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.” That dynamic is true around the world for parties in power. Voters have been consistently punishing incumbents in nearly every democratic election held this year largely because of dissatisfaction with both pandemic response and the ensuing economic crises brought on by inflation and rising global interest rates. That was true for the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom, which was swept out of power in the summer; in South Africa, where the African National Congress party lost its majority for the first time; in France; in Japan; in Germany; in India (to a degree), and most recently, in Botswana. To the north, Canada’s incumbent Liberal Party is mirroring much of the last year of American politics: the party has been trailing the Conservative Party in polling for months, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing similar internal pressure to step down before his party heads for electoral disaster in a little less than a year.  It’s also not clear that there was any position Harris could take on Gaza that wouldn’t cost her support from some part of the Democratic coalition. Some of Harris’s moves appear to be paying off. Yes, she has moved her platform to the right on the issues where Trump has an advantage — crime and immigration — while moderating or compromising on others. But that has, in turn, opened up a big-tent ideological coalition. Her focus on personal freedoms (predominantly abortion rights) and democracy has given her a significant boost among Democratic partisans and moderates. In the final polls of the cycle, Harris has managed to largely wipe out Trump’s advantage on the economy and make inroads with those who view immigration as a top concern: The final PBS/Marist poll, for example, found Harris and Trump tied on the question of who voters think would better handle the economy.  And among subgroups, she’s leaned into the gender gap, increasing the levels of Democratic support among women voters to a historic margin, while restoring levels of Democratic support among young voters and nonwhite voters that Biden was drastically underperforming among. Additionally, she’s done that as she boosted her favorability ratings into the positive single digits when those started nearly as bad as Biden’s when the president was at his lowest this summer. All told, Harris’s defenders see a candidate who, despite an unfavorable national environment, has given her party a chance — a far better situation than Democrats found themselves in when Harris took over the nomination just a few short months ago.

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“Decision desks” use data, statistical models, and on-the-ground reporting to understand which candidate is leading where. | Lorenzo Bevilacqua/ABC via Getty Images Come Tuesday night, millions of Americans will be glued to their TV screens or refreshing their browser windows to see the latest election returns, all in anticipation of a final race call. (Though we might won’t know the next president until days later.) Counting ballots can take a while, but news organizations don’t necessarily need to wait for every cast ballot to be counted before announcing a winner. They’re often able to declare who won without the full returns, thanks to the work of teams colloquially known as “decision desks” — groups of political scientists, statisticians, pollsters, and reporters who use mountains of data, statistical models, and on-the-ground reporting to understand which candidate is up where, and how likely a candidate is to win a given precinct, county, or state.  Given the doubt that former President Donald Trump has sown over the past eight years, both about the election process and the media, it’s worth understanding in detail how the processes of projecting and calling election results work, and why consumers of news should trust those results.  “Remember that we don’t elect anybody,” Anthony Salvanto, who as CBS News’s executive director of elections and surveys, oversees the network’s decision desk, told Vox. “The voters do that. Elections officials are reporting the vote, and what you’re getting from us and the networks is our analysis of what they’ve reported, as well as our first-hand reports from talking to voters.” How exactly do news organizations figure out who’s winning? To figure out who won an election, news organizations like Fox News, CNN, the Associated Press (AP), and others use a combination of data from election officials, statistical modeling, and polling and surveys of voters.  Raw vote counts come in at the precinct, county, and state levels, and these help decision desks both ensure voting is in line with their expectations and to make decisions on tight contests. Those expectations are shaped by statistical models based on history and other voter information, like geographical location, gender, age, and more. This year, there are two main systems that news media will rely on for their projections.  The AP and Fox News use a system called AP VoteCast, which debuted in 2018 and has been used in every national election since. In a shift from past practice, VoteCast doesn’t rely on exit polling, and instead uses large-scale online surveys of registered voters who are chosen randomly from a probability-based sample, in an attempt to get the most accurate information from the most representative sample. A different method is used by the National Election Pool (NEP), which provides data to ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News. The NEP relies on Edison Research to conduct three types of surveys: Election Day exit polls, in-person early voting exit polls, and polls of likely voters to capture data from those likely to vote by mail, Rob Farbman, executive vice president at Edison Research, told Vox. (AP and Fox News used to be part of this group, but left after the 2016 election.) (Decision Desk HQ, a private company that contracts with news organizations including the Economist and The Hill — and Vox.com in 2020 — doesn’t use voter surveys, and instead it relies on a proprietary statistical methodology to project winners.) Each outlet and agency creates their own criteria for interpreting these results.  Sometimes, that can lead to one decision desk getting ahead of the others, like in 2020 when Fox News’s decision desk head Arnon Mishkin called Arizona for President Joe Biden much earlier than any other news source, including the AP, or when Decision Desk HQ called the race far ahead of other experts.  Overall though, when it comes time to make a call, “Our decision team will examine all of the models we are running, consult with the networks’ decision teams, and consider any possible data issues to ensure that the possibility of our call being incorrect is sufficiently small,” Farbman said.  “We generally will not make a call unless we are 99.5 percent confident in the call.” Similarly, the AP doesn’t call an election until “we are confident that there’s no chance the trailing candidate can catch up,” according to David Scott, the AP’s vice president and head of news strategy and operations.  The combination of inputs allows the services to accurately understand who has won each of the around 5,000 elections taking place this year, from the presidential race to local contests and ballot measures. And they can do it quickly, without having to wait on election officials to count each vote. That’s true even in the case of a tight race (like the presidential race is expected to be), though calling those is a bit more complicated.   “If you get a very close race, then you’re looking at where the outstanding vote is, the vote that hasn’t yet been reported, and you’re looking at the kind of places that the outstanding vote is from,” Salvanto, of CBS News, said. “You’re looking at whether it is a mail vote or Election Day vote, if there are any differences in the patterns that you’ve seen by ballot type.” Along the way, news organizations keep viewers up to date as the polls close and votes come in, showing the public the data that’s being used to make the calls is accurate. “We will tell you if our models show that it’s a toss up or that it’s leading one way or the other,” Salvanto said. “We will show you, in real time, where the counted vote is coming in — from which counties, which areas of the state, and where it’s still outstanding, where we know there are registered voters, and we know there are still reports to come, so that the viewer can see the whole picture, the way that we see it.” Of course, these methods aren’t perfect. Very occasionally, news organizations call a race wrong. The most dramatic instance was in 2000, when news networks initially called Florida for Al Gore. Errors do happen — decision desks are made up human beings, after all — but when they do, organizations work to correct them as quickly as possible. Still, mistakes are incredibly rare, so come Election Day (and the days after) you can be confident you’re seeing the real results. 

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Supporters hold signs at a campaign event for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on October 10, 2024. | Ryan Collerd/AFP/Getty Images After months of cold sweats, nail-biting, and conjecture, Election Day is finally here.  Millions of voters across the country will head to polling places and determine everything from who will hold the presidency to control of Congress to the outcomes of local ballot initiatives. They’ll join more than 75 million people who have already voted early either in person or by mail as they weigh the presidential candidacies of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, along with other third-party options.  Ultimately, the presidential race will be decided by seven key swing states where the margins between Democrats and Republicans are exceedingly close. The states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — include some that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, but that also voted for Trump in 2016. And as recently as this past weekend, polls were so tight in many of them that they remain a toss-up going into Election Day.  Here’s everything you need to know about these pivotal states as well as when to expect results and race decisions to start coming in.  What time do polls close? Poll closures vary by state — and in certain places, even by county — so be sure to check where you live for specifics. You can do so using this tool from Democracy Works, a nonpartisan nonprofit focused on voting participation. Broadly, though, cutoffs start at 6 pm ET in states such as Indiana and Kentucky, with many others, including Illinois, Missouri, and Tennessee, closing at 8 pm ET. Alaska and Hawaii finish out the night, wrapping up voting at midnight and 1 am ET. In swing states, poll closures are also staggered: Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are the first to close at 7 pm, 7:30 pm, and 8 pm ET respectively. Some Michigan counties will close at 8 pm, while others will close at 9 pm ET. Wisconsin and Arizona both close at 9 pm ET, and Nevada is the last of the seven, closing at 10 pm ET. When will results start coming in? States and counties usually start disclosing results once the polls are shuttered in their jurisdictions. Many will post vote counts online as they are being processed, and news outlets and television networks may update their trackers based on these figures. These results are likely to change over time, however.  In some places, smaller and more rural counties may be able to count their ballots more quickly than larger cities, for example. Because of this, smaller towns might report their results faster, creating the impression that one candidate is ahead. This happened in 2020, when certain vote counts suggested that Trump was initially ahead in battleground states, creating a “red mirage.”  Since it takes some states longer to count mail-in votes, that dynamic can also contribute to Republicans banking an early lead since they’re less likely to use absentee ballots. In both instances, early leads might not match the final result, with margins potentially changing significantly as more votes are tallied. In 2020, this happened in states like Pennsylvania: As more mail-in ballots were counted, as well as votes from larger cities, Biden picked up support, fueling what political observers referred to as a “blue shift.” It’s not clear if that same dynamic will play out this cycle, but it is a helpful reminder that things could shift dramatically over the course of hours and days.  How many electoral votes does Trump or Harris need to win, again? There are 538 Electoral College votes up for grabs, and a candidate needs to secure a majority  — or 270 electoral votes — to win the presidency.  The majority of these votes are concentrated in safe red or blue states, meaning Trump and Harris are both guaranteed a sizable degree of support. The backing of some swing states, however, will be necessary for each to reach the 270-vote threshold, making them incredibly important.  So, what do I need to know about these battleground states? The presidential race in these seven states is so close that they have the potential to flip for either Harris or Trump and deliver a sizable number of electoral votes along with it. That’s why both campaigns have been focusing their ground game and advertising here in recent weeks. Arizona Why it’s a battleground: Arizona was a longstanding Republican stronghold until Democrats flipped it during a Senate race in 2018 and subsequent presidential race in 2020. Democrats have steadily made gains here, though Republicans still have plenty of support, so much so that it’s been a wellspring of election denialism since 2020. A ballot initiative enshrining abortion rights in the state Constitution could be very motivating for voters this cycle and give Democrats a boost due to their support for it.  Electoral votes: 11 How voting works: Arizona can quickly report results for ballots submitted prior to Election Day. A high proportion of mail-in ballots, however, have historically been submitted on Election Day itself, and those aren’t counted until polls close, meaning there could be delays in reporting the final outcome, particularly in close races.  When to expect results: In 2020, the Associated Press (AP) called the race on the day after the election, while other organizations, such as the New York Times, didn’t call the race until nine days after Election Day. In 2024, it could once again be several days until an official call is made.  Pennsylvania Why it’s a battleground: Pennsylvania had voted Democrat for years, but was one of three states in the party’s “blue wall” that went to Trump in 2016.  Biden won back the state in 2020, though Republicans have continued to maintain a strong presence, keeping control of one of two chambers in the state legislature. Given its sizable number of electoral votes, the state is a major target for both parties, and could well determine who wins the election overall. Because of how competitive the race is, the state has also been a focal point for GOP misinformation about voter fraud, which remains very rare.  Electoral votes: 19 How voting works: Pennsylvania isn’t allowed to process or count mail-in ballots until Election Day, which could contribute to a lag in reporting results. When to expect results: In 2020, the AP reported Biden as the winner four days after Election Day. The timing could be similar this election, depending on how many voters opt for mail-in ballots.   Michigan  Why it’s a battleground: Michigan was another “blue wall” state that Trump won in 2016 and Biden took back in 2020. It has strong Democratic roots, and the party currently holds the governor’s mansion, two Senate seats, and both chambers of the legislature. But one major question in the state is whether opposition to Harris’s position on Gaza will lead to the state’s roughly 200,000 Arab American voters sitting out the election, voting for a third party or turning to Trump in protest. Given how close the race is, Harris needs high turnout from this group — and many others who have historically backed Democrats.  How voting works: Changes in election laws made in 2023 are giving officials more time to process mail-in ballots before Election Day. This could help speed up the counting significantly.  Electoral votes: 15 When to expect results: In 2020, results were called by the AP one day after Election Day, and officials anticipate that the same could be the case this time around.  Wisconsin Why it’s a battleground: Wisconsin is the third “blue wall” state that Trump won in 2016 and Biden retook in 2020. Its status as a battleground is evident: It has a Democratic governor, one Democratic senator, one Republican senator, and two Republican-led chambers in the legislature.  How voting works: Mail-in ballots in several large counties are stored in “central locations” and aren’t counted until Election Day, which can lead to some delays.  Electoral votes: 10 When to expect results: In 2020, Wisconsin was called by the AP the day after the election and that could happen again.  Georgia Why it’s a battleground: Georgia only recently flipped to Democrats during the 2020 presidential election and then narrowly reelected a Democrat to the Senate in 2022. The state has an enduring Republican lean — evidenced by its Republican governor and two Republican-led chambers in the legislature — but has continued to shift left as it has diversified. Previously, Georgia was a major target of Trump’s attacks in 2020, when he called on officials in the state to overturn its results.  How voting works: Georgia has approved rules changes that enable the processing of mail-in ballots earlier. These changes should expedite the process compared to 2020.  Electoral votes: 16 When to expect results: In 2020, an extremely tight margin resulted in election results being called by the AP a full 16 days after the race. The turnaround could potentially be faster this year depending on the margin in the race. Nevada Why it’s a battleground: Nevada has voted Democratic pretty consistently, and is known for its strong base of left-leaning union support. It has started to move right in recent elections, however, and elected a Republican governor in 2022. This cycle, the economy — and concerns about the state hospitality industry’s recovery post-pandemic — are key issues that may fuel discontent toward Democrats.  How voting works: Nevada has expansive mail-in voting, and allows ballots received up to four days after Election Day to be counted. As a result, there could be some delays in when we know the results.  Electoral votes: 6 When to expect results: In 2020, election results were called by the AP four days after the election, and it’s possible that could happen again.  North Carolina Why it’s a battleground: North Carolina has been reliably Republican in presidential and Senate races in recent years, though it has shifted left over time. Questions have been raised for years about if and when the state could flip blue again for a national election. This year, a scandal over incendiary statements made by Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson could drag down the Republican ticket as he makes a run for governor.  How voting works: Processing of mail-in ballots can begin before Election Day, while the counting can’t start until then. Mail ballots must also be received by Election Day this year, a change from 2020. Electoral votes: 16 When to expect results: In 2020, the race was called by the AP 10 days after Election Day, and it’s possible it could be faster this year because of the change to mail-in ballot rules.  How will I know the race is actually called? Vox will monitor a variety of sources before we publish election results, including the AP and the National Election Pool, a poll conducted by Edison Research and funded by several major news organizations.  States and counties are in charge of running elections, reporting results and certifying those outcomes. There’s a gap, however, between when states report the results of the election and when they declare a winner because of how long the certification process takes.  The AP is one of the entities that fills in the gap in the meantime by analyzing the unofficial results that states and counties are posting. The AP has said it makes a race call when it’s clear there is no way an opponent can make up the gap in votes.  Vox’s Ellen Ioanes has a more detailed explainer on how publications like the Associated Press make these calls. How long is all this going to take? It’s likely that tallying the votes could take several days, as it did in 2020. That year, in particular, it took more time to determine the winner of the election because more people used mail-in ballots due to the pandemic.  The last presidential election also saw some of the highest voter turnout in years, and extremely close margins in key swing states. Both those dynamics meant that ballot counting took longer, and that more time was needed to determine whether a candidate had secured a high enough lead to win.  In 2020, it took four days before Biden was declared the winner of the Electoral College by publications including the AP. That year, states like Georgia also saw legal challenges to their outcomes from the Trump campaign, which falsely alleged widespread fraud. States could see similar lawsuits this cycle, and those could fuel uncertainty about the legitimacy of the result, though they haven’t previously delayed calls by entities like the AP. (AP’s notable later call in Georgia in 2020 came only after the state conducted a hand audit that confirmed the outcome.)  This year, don’t be alarmed if results aren’t announced immediately once again and it takes a few days to arrive at an outcome.

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