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The Election’s No-Excuses Moment

This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here.

This weekend, at his rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump descended into a spiral of rage and incoherence that was startling even by his standards. I know I’ve said this before, but this weekend felt different: Trump himself, as my colleague David Graham wrote today, admitted that he’s decided to start going darker than usual.

At this point, voters have everything they need to know about this election. (Tomorrow, the vice-presidential candidates will debate each other, which might not have much of an impact beyond providing another opportunity for J. D. Vance to drive down his already-low likability numbers.) Here are some realities that will likely shape the next four weeks.

Trump is going to get worse.

I’m not quite sure what happened to Trump in Erie, but he seems to be in some sort of emotional tailspin. The race is currently tied; Trump, however, is acting as if he’s losing badly and he’s struggling to process the loss. Other candidates, when faced with such a close election, might hitch up their pants, take a deep breath, and think about changing their approach, but that’s never been Trump’s style. Instead, Trump gave us a preview of the next month: He is going to ratchet up the racism, incoherence, lies, and calls for violence. If the polls get worse, Trump’s mental state will likely follow them.

Policy is not suddenly going to matter.

Earlier this month, the New York Times columnist Bret Stephens wrote about very specific policy questions that Kamala Harris must answer to earn his vote. Harris has issued plenty of policy statements, and Stephens surely knows it. Such demands are a dodge: Policy is important, but Stephens and others, apparently unable to overcome their reticence to vote for a Democratic candidate, are using a focus on it as a way to rationalize their role as bystanders in an existentially important election.

MAGA Republicans, for their part, claim that policy is so important to them that they’re willing to overlook the odiousness of a candidate such as North Carolina’s gubernatorial contender Mark Robinson. But neither Trump nor other MAGA candidates, including Robinson, have any interest in policy. Instead, they create cycles of rage: They gin up fake controversies, thunder that no one is doing anything about these ostensibly explosive issues, and then promise to fix them all by punishing other Americans.

Major news outlets are not likely to start covering Trump differently.

Spotting headlines in national news sources in which Trump’s ravings are “sanewashed” to sound as if they are coherent policy has become something of a sport on social media. After Trump went on yet another unhinged tirade in Wisconsin this past weekend, Bloomberg posted on X: “Donald Trump sharpened his criticism on border security in a swing-state visit, playing up a political vulnerability for Kamala Harris.” Well, yes, that’s one way to put it. Another would be to say: The GOP candidate seemed unstable and made several bizarre remarks during a campaign speech. Fortunately, Trump’s performances create a lot of videos where people can see his emotional state for themselves.

News about actual conditions in the country probably isn’t going to have much of an impact now.

This morning, the CNN anchor John Berman talked with the Republican House member Tom Emmer, who said that Joe Biden and Harris “broke the economy.” Berman countered that a top economist has called the current U.S. economy the best in 35 years.

Like so many other Trump defenders, Emmer didn’t care. He doesn’t have to. Many voters—and this is a bipartisan problem—have accepted the idea that the economy is terrible (and that crime is up, and that the cities are in flames, and so on). Gas could drop to a buck a gallon, and Harris could personally deliver a week’s worth of groceries to most Americans, and they’d probably still say (as they do now) that they are doing well, but they believe that it’s just awful everywhere else.

Undecided voters have everything they need to know right in front of them.

Some voters likely think that sitting out the election won’t change much. As my colleague Ronald Brownstein pointed out in a recent article, many “undecided” voters are not really undecided between the candidates: They’re deciding whether to vote at all. But they should take as a warning Trump’s fantasizing during the Erie event about dealing with crime by doing something that sounds like it’s from the movie The Purge.

The police aren’t allowed to do their job. They’re told: If you do anything, you’re going to lose your pension; you’re going to lose your family, your house, your car … One rough hour, and I mean real rough, the word will get out, and it will end immediately. End immediately. You know? It’ll end immediately.

This weird dystopian moment is not the only sign that Trump and his movement could upend the lives of wavering nonvoters. Trump, for months, has been making clear that only two groups exist in America: those who support him, and those who don’t—and anyone in that second group, by his definition, is “scum,” and his enemy.

Some of Trump’s supporters agree and are taking their cues from him. For example, soon after Trump and Vance singled out Springfield, Ohio, for being too welcoming of immigrants, one of the longtime local business owners—a fifth-generation Springfielder—started getting death threats for employing something like 30 Haitians in a company of 330 people. (His 80-year-old mother is also reportedly getting hateful calls. So much for the arguments that Trump voters are merely concerned about maintaining a sense of community out there in Real America.)

Nasty phone calls aimed at old ladies in Ohio and Trump’s freak-out in Erie should bring to an end any further deflections from uncommitted voters about not having enough information to decide what to do.

I won’t end this depressing list by adding that “turnout will decide the election,” because that’s been obvious for years. But I think it’s important to ask why this election, despite everything we now know, could tip to Trump.

Perhaps the most surprising but disconcerting reality is that the election, as a national matter, isn’t really that close. If the United States took a poll and used that to select a president, Trump would lose by millions of votes—just as he would have lost in 2016. Federalism is a wonderful system of government but a lousy way of electing national leaders: The Electoral College system (which I long defended as a way to balance the interests of 50 very different states) is now lopsidedly tilted in favor of real estate over people.

Understandably, this means that pro-democracy efforts are focused on a relative handful of people in a handful of states, but nothing—absolutely nothing—is going to shake loose the faithful MAGA voters who have stayed with Trump for the past eight years. Trump’s mad gibbering at rallies hasn’t done it; the Trump-Harris debate didn’t do it; Trump’s endorsement of people like Robinson didn’t do it. Trump once said he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose a vote. Close enough: He’s now rhapsodized about a night of cops brutalizing people on Fifth Avenue and everywhere else.

For years, I’ve advocated asking fellow citizens who support Trump whether he, and what he says, really represents who they are. After this weekend, there are no more questions to ask.

Related:

Trump is taking a dark turn. Peter Wehner: The Republican freak show

Here are three new stories from The Atlantic:

North Carolina was set up for disaster. Will RFK Jr.’s supporters vote for Trump? Hussein Ibish: Hezbollah got caught in its own trap.

Today’s News

Israeli officials said that commando units have been conducting ground raids in southern Lebanon. Israel’s military is also planning to carry out a limited ground operation in Lebanon, which will focus on the border, according to U.S. officials. At least 130 people were killed across six states and hundreds may be missing after Hurricane Helene made landfall last week. A Georgia judge struck down the state’s effective six-week abortion ban, ruling that it is unconstitutional.

Dispatches

The Wonder Reader: The decision to have kids comes down to a lot more than “baby fever”—and it may be about more than government support too, Isabel Fattal writes.

Explore all of our newsletters here.

Evening Read

photo of Robert Downey Jr. sitting, flanked by Bartlett Sher in glasses and blue-green blazer on left and Ayad Akhtar in glasses and tan blazer on right Director Bartlett Sher, star Robert Downey Jr., and writer Ayad Akhtar OK McCausland for The Atlantic

The Playwright in the Age of AI

By Jeffrey Goldberg

I’ve been in conversation for quite some time with Ayad Akhtar, whose play Disgraced won the Pulitzer Prize in 2013, about artificial generative intelligence and its impact on cognition and creation. He’s one of the few writers I know whose position on AI can’t be reduced to the (understandable) plea For God’s sake, stop threatening my existence! In McNeal, he not only suggests that LLMs might be nondestructive utilities for human writers, but also deployed LLMs as he wrote (he’s used many of them, ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini included). To my chagrin and astonishment, they seem to have helped him make an even better play. As you will see in our conversation, he doesn’t believe that this should be controversial.

Read the full article.

More From The Atlantic

Putin can’t keep his private life private. The abandonment of Ukraine America needs a disaster corps, Zoë Schlanger argues. “Dear Therapist”: I ran into the man who raped me.

Culture Break

Kris Kristofferson holding a guitar Amanda Marsalis / Trunk Archive

Remember. Kris Kristofferson’s songs couched intimate moments in cosmic terms, pushing country music in an existentialist direction, Spencer Kornhaber writes.

Debate. Twenty years after Lost’s premiere, the mistreatment of Hurley on the show (streaming on Netflix and Hulu) has become only more obvious, Rebecca Bodenheimer writes.

Play our daily crossword.

Stephanie Bai contributed to this newsletter.

When you buy a book using a link in this newsletter, we receive a commission. Thank you for supporting The Atlantic.


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A month later, before he could be tried, he was found dead in jail; the New York City medical examiner ruled his death a suicide.Epstein has since become a kind of symbol for the most depraved sort of sexual abuser, a man who, according to the women who came forward, knowingly and repeatedly targeted children, manipulating them and forcing them to become his accomplices in harming others. Other men accused of serial sexual misconduct, like Sean Combs, are often compared to Epstein. Investigations and reports have continued since the money manager’s death — in a 2020 lawsuit, for example, the attorney general of the Virgin Islands said that Epstein had run a sex trafficking operation from his private island there, bringing girls as young as 11 to be abused. Trump and Epstein were more than acquaintances — they were self-professed close friends who partied together for over a decade On episode 22 of the Fire and Fury podcast, released October 31, Wolff discusses the “longstanding deep relationship” between Epstein and Trump.  “Epstein knew him, really, I think, better than most,” Wolff said. “I mean, this was a true BFF situation: two playboys very much styling themselves as playboys in that Hefner sense, who palled around for the better part of 15 years.” Trump’s own previous statements bear out this assessment. “I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy,” Trump told New York magazine in 2002, in a profile that now reads like an indictment of the many powerful people in Epstein’s orbit. Archival photos abound of the pair hanging out at events, partying at Mar-a-Lago, double-dating with Melania and Epstein’s girlfriend-turned-business partner Ghislaine Maxwell. In one video recorded at Mar-a-Lago in 1992 and released in 2019, Trump appears to point out women to Epstein and then to whisper something in his ear, making the money manager laugh. The earliest photos hail from the early ’90s; Trump was a frequent dinner guest of Epstein’s until at least 2003.  Trump told New York that “Jeffrey enjoys his social life” and that “he’s a lot of fun to be with.” He also told the magazine, “It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.” A source once told Page Six that Epstein had formerly “use[d] the spa” at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club “to try to procure girls.” (The club claimed it had since banned Epstein, a claim Epstein disputed to Page Six.) Photos of Trump and Maxwell — now serving her conviction on sex trafficking charges for having procured underage victims for Epstein — also abound.  In addition to Epstein frequently attending Trump parties at Mar-a-Lago, Trump allegedly also frequently partied at Epstein’s former New York townhouse. This included allegedly having sex with at least one of Epstein’s victims “on regular occasions,” according to an Epstein survivor who later testified in court to witnessing the meetings. Another Epstein accuser testified in court that Epstein introduced her to Trump when she was just 14.  (Trump has denied the accusations.) Epstein and Trump eventually had a falling out in 2004 after they reportedly feuded over the since-destroyed Maison de l’Amitie estate in Palm Beach. In 2008, Epstein pleaded guilty to drastically reduced charges of procuring a child for prostitution and soliciting a prostitute — crimes for which he served 13 months of an 18-month sentence. Trump has since distanced himself publicly from Epstein, claiming he was “not a fan” of the money manager and had “no idea” of Epstein’s crimes. The Wolff tapes, if true, add some new dimension to the dissolution of their friendship and Epstein’s downfall. According to Wolff, Epstein first told Trump that he was planning to buy the Palm Beach estate, only for Trump, as court records recently revealed, to come in guns blazing and outbid him. Following this dispute, according to Wolff, Epstein came to suspect that Trump was the person who initiated the subsequent criminal investigation into Epstein’s now-infamous parties.  For Epstein’s part, based on his comments to Wolff, it seemed he remained interested in Trump’s trajectory and had trouble even grasping that Trump, who he described as “functionally illiterate,” could have made it into the White House.  In the tapes, Epstein emphatically showed his distaste for his former friend, calling him “a horrible human being.” Why all this matters It’s an open question whether Wolff’s revelations about Epstein and Trump will play any role in the 2024 election. The tapes have had little time to percolate through the media landscape or to be investigated and fact-checked. 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