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The massive gender gap in the election, in 2 charts

A purple, yellow, and white mural with famous women painted on top
A mural honoring women in Erie, Pennsylvania. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

A massive gender gap has been evident in poll after poll of this election — a significant trend that underscores the pivotal role women could play this November. 

Most recently, a late October Quinnipiac survey of Michigan found 57 percent of women in the state back Vice President Kamala Harris, while 40 percent of men did the same. Conversely, 56 percent of men backed former President Donald Trump, while 37 percent of women did. That’s repeatedly been the case in national polls, too. For example, a recent poll from USA Today/Suffolk University found that Harris had a 16-point gap in the support that she saw from men and women. 

“It’s the battle of the sexes, and it’s no game,” Quinnipiac pollster Tim Malloy said in a statement. “There is a glaring gap in Michigan and Wisconsin between the number of women supporting Harris and the number of men supporting Trump.” In Quinnipiac polls conducted in five of the seven key swing states throughout October, Harris had a significant lead among women, while Trump saw a comparable advantage among men in those same places. (Quinnipiac has not released October results for Nevada and Arizona.)

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Women supporting Democrats over Republicans isn’t a new phenomenon: Members of the group have been more likely to support the party than men since the 1980s, and this political divide has only grown over time. This time around, though, that split could have major implications for the election outcome due both to how tight the race is, and other demographic shifts. 

According to recent polls, Democrats seem to be losing support among groups they’ve counted on in the past, like Black men and Latino men. Those losses could be made up by boosting turnout among women, particularly since women are more likely to vote than men, and historically do so in larger numbers.

“The women’s vote will be decisive this election,” Katherine Tate, a Brown University political scientist, said. “If Harris wins, it will be because women elected her.”

The gender gap is a sign of the inroads Democrats have made over time

Women have backed Democrats by a significant margin in multiple cycles now. In 2020, President Joe Biden won 55 percent of women voters, while Trump won 44 percent, and in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won 54 percent of women voters, while Trump won 39 percent, according to Pew Research Center. If the actual outcome approaches the figures that pollsters are seeing, Democrats could well maintain these margins.

Part of Democrats’ growth with women comes from ideological shifts: A higher proportion of women across all age groups are now identifying as liberal, compared to two decades ago, according to a Gallup survey published in February. And younger women between the ages of 18 to 29, especially, are one of the groups now far more likely to identify as liberal than they were in the past. Gallup found 40 percent of young women identified as liberal in 2023 compared to 29 percent in 1999. 

While the left is adding women, it’s gaining few men, however. In that same 24-year timeframe, Gallup found the proportion of men who identify as liberal across age groups has stayed relatively unchanged: Just 25 percent of young men identified as liberal in 2023, only 1 percentage point more than in 1999. 

Women’s leftward shift has been driven by a combination of factors, including opposition to misogynistic rhetoric from GOP leaders and allegations of sexual misconduct faced by prominent political figures — like Trump, who’s the subject of more than 20 accusations of sexual assault and misconduct, including a new allegation this week

Social movements like the #MeToo movement raised awareness of sexual misconduct and harassment in 2017. And women became more involved politically in the wake of Trump’s election, organizing via demonstrations like the Women’s March and running for elected office in record numbers. 

Democrats’ stances on social issues including reproductive rights, and the outrage over the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022 have also resonated with some women. Trump was responsible for appointing the justices who led the overturn of Roe, and has bragged about his role in doing so. Democrats, meanwhile, have fashioned themselves as the party dedicated to defending reproductive health care

Since the 1980s, many women have increasingly viewed Democrats as operating in their economic interest too, Roosevelt Institute historian Suzanne Kahn wrote for Time. That idea can be traced back to President Ronald Reagan’s decision to cut social benefits like Social Security and welfare, a reduction that disproportionately harmed women, Kahn wrote. And it’s since been solidified by efforts by Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton to pass laws addressing the gender wage gap and establishing family leave. 

“Women believe that they or their family may need government help or protection,” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says. “Men think it’s a good day when the government doesn’t do anything bad to you.”

And Democrats have been able to take advantage of the power of representation as the party has diversified as well. The Democratic Party itself has become more representative of women in recent decades, and made a successful push for the recruitment and promotion of women candidates, something Republicans are still catching up to. 

In the House, for example, 43 percent of Democratic lawmakers are women, while 15 percent of Republican lawmakers are women. The party’s efforts have also led to two women at the top of Democrats’ presidential ticket, including Harris, something many Democratic voters have expressed excitement about. 

Women’s leftward shift has calcified into party affiliation with Democrats, Lake says, and that could have major consequences this election cycle. 

Currently, a number of swing state polls are even between the two presidential candidates — and boosting support with women could be what pushes Harris over the top.

“In close races the formula for victory is to win women by more than you lose men,” Lake tells Vox.


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The Charisma-vs.-Charm Election
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[Read: The power of oddball charm]“Charm is a defining feature of contemporary politics, not just in the United States but internationally,” Sonnevend told me recently at an event in New York City hosted by the intellectual community Interintellect. “If you analyze politics without considering it, you are missing a core component,” she insisted. “There’s a stronger focus on personality than before. We have to understand how it operates.”To clarify how her ideas can help us understand the United States—and the distinct relationships that Trump, Harris, J. D. Vance, and Tim Walz have with charisma and charm—I visited Sonnevend at the New School, where she is an associate professor. What follows is a condensed, edited version of our conversation, where I learned that charm works partly because almost all of us want to be seduced.Conor Friedersdorf: Trump always wears a suit and tie. He rose to fame as a billionaire CEO behind a boardroom table. He loves hosting huge rallies. Kamala Harris isn’t as good at big arena speeches. She has tried to avoid traditional interviews. But people in small groups and more informal settings seem to find her likable and relatable.Is Election 2024 charisma versus charm?Julia Sonnevend: Harris in many ways is a great example for the charm category if you think of the dancing videos, the cooking videos. There was a viral tweet where someone suggested that instead of formal interviews, she should go on the Food [Network] and cook—all the people urging her: “Maybe you actually shouldn’t do that traditional appearance.” “Maybe these intimate settings offer a better chance for success.” “Show the power of charm and the value of everyday interactions.” Still, in debates, wearing formal dress and a flag pin, she is attempting charisma.Trump is a more complex case. He has a strong charismatic component. If I think of the assassination attempt––how he realized, This is the moment in which I’m going to generate that iconic photograph with the raised fist. He had the composure to create that kind of moment, which is a more charismatic situation. You don’t feel like you would do it. It is not ordinary.Some of my students argue that Trump has no charming component. But when he is telling personal stories or saying “You guys are the same as me” in a Bronx barber shop or wearing the red baseball cap––you know, that’s not a regular kind of accessory with the super-formal business suits––then there are elements that are forms of charm. Most politicians try a mix of charisma and charm, even if they lean closer to one or the other.Friedersdorf: Why do voters care about charm more than they once did?Sonnevend: One reason is the changing media environment. It has become increasingly possible to give almost continuous access to politicians—or that’s the illusion. Think of our phones, these totemic objects we all carry—the intimacy of sitting in bed with the screen close to your face, watching a politician record a video or a livestream of themselves with their own phone. That’s different from sitting in the living room, watching a TV set where a leader is on a stage.In everyday life, there are so many moments when we are not fully ourselves, when we feel awkward during a meeting or an interview or a date. Yet in our politics, we want a steady performance of authenticity from leaders, without it being too polished or fine-tuned a performance. We know that attempts at charm are highly constructed. But if it works, you don’t feel like it’s a performance. Everyday settings become normal sites of politics, like Jacinda Ardern, then–prime minister of New Zealand, at home in a gray hoodie, recording a video announcing, I just had a conversation with President-elect Joe Biden.Friedersdorf: What about when attempts at charm fail?Sonnevend: The chance of failure rises with every attempt. And the feeling the audience has when it fails is often cringe. The fine line between successful performances of charm and cringe is interesting. These attempts at proximity aim to make you feel, Okay, that’s actually him; he’s authentic; I’ve gotten to know him. But in some cases you feel that there’s an attempt to deceive or manipulate, or that the person shares too much. Charming people excel at making you feel you’ve gotten to know them while maintaining boundaries and avoiding cringe.[Read: Trump is speaking like Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini ]Friedersdorf: So an example of cringe would be that J. D. Vance trip to the doughnut shop, where his interactions with staff seemed awkward and stilted rather than natural?Sonnevend: Yes. Vance is not charming. He is better in the charismatic setting of the formal debate. Tim Walz is the opposite. He is better at charm.Friedersdorf: As a young woman, my grandmother would go to movie premieres in Hollywood to see 1950s movie stars on the red carpet. In her older years, she would scoff dismissively at shows like Access Hollywood and tell me, “I feel sorry for your generation. The stars don’t shine anymore.” She felt, to borrow Us Weekly’s tagline, that the stars were “just like us,” and that was a bad thing. In catering to our desire for exposure, do politicians lose something, and that fuels our contempt for them?Sonnevend: There is a sort of magic that we are losing. If you introduce viewers to your private life, you lose the magic of distance that is core to charisma, this stardust you can never touch. There is a difference between being a godlike character and the illusion of a guy you can have a beer with. The sheer amount of access makes it less exciting. Think about the Royal Family and how difficult it becomes to have all these fans who start to know too much, then the inevitable controversy about what people think of those particular details.Still, you get another form of magic with charm.Friedersdorf: What’s an example of someone who lost a bit of the magic that comes from distance while gaining a bit of the personal magnetism that comes from familiarity?Sonnevend: I saw Princess Diana as a kind of icon when I was growing up in Communist Hungary, with barely any commercial products available. She was, to me, the first example … of this distant character who was magical, a princess.But what I remember discussing with my mother for hours and hours were Princess Diana’s marital troubles and how to solve them. I had access to this very mundane form of unhappiness that she displayed in maybe a performative way. We felt we knew her deep-rooted unhappiness and her marriage despite living in circumstances so different from hers.Friedersdorf: Perhaps there is no stable sweet spot. As humans, do we always crave more intimacy when confronted with mystery, and more mystery when confronted with intimacy?Sonnevend: We may see cyclical processes in politics where a country has a charming, charismatic leader for a while until they get fed up, want change, and choose a more bureaucratic process for a while.Sometimes we are deceived by charming people––abusers, fraudsters, charming psychopaths, sociopaths. A long list of people have this quality, and authoritarian leaders can have it. So I’m not saying celebrate every aspect of it. There is a dark side to charm.At the same time, I think we all want to be seduced. Charm is enormously important in everyday life, whether we accept it or not. It matters very much whether your kid has a charming teacher. It matters to the New School that we have a charming president. It matters in fundraising but also in the everyday mood and feel of the university, because charming people shape organizations. Charm is not in itself good or bad. And I really try to go against what I see as the hypocrisy of saying I don’t want to have anything to do with seduction.[Read: Trump has turned over a new leaf]Friedersdorf: So you would say that, even in politics, charm’s importance is less a choice than a fact to deal with?Sonnevend: I think we are trained, particularly on the left, to be critical of performance. And I feel we should be more honest in acknowledging that performance is crucial to politics. It doesn’t mean it’s the only factor––that policy or other factors don’t matter. But it is a defining feature.You have fragmented, disillusioned audiences that are bored by politics and often don’t even follow it, because we think it’s too much. If you have a charming character who can bring a bit of seduction and magic to our lives, that can reinvigorate and energize politics. And there is a risk and that dark side to charm. I don’t think we should adopt an easy answer, that charm is a magical process we all need or a disaster to fear. We should recognize its presence in social life and reflect on it as it arises, trying our best to understand it.
2 h
theatlantic.com