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A Good Country’s Bad Choice

Once she became the nominee, I expected Vice President Kamala Harris to win the 2024 presidential election.

More exactly, I expected ex-President Donald Trump to lose.

What did I get wrong?

My expectation was based on three observations and one belief.

Observation one: Inflation was coming under control in 2024. Personal incomes rose faster than prices over the year. As interest rates peaked and began to subside, consumer confidence climbed. When asked about their personal finances, Americans expressed qualms, yes, but the number who rated their personal finances as excellent or good was a solid 46 percent, higher than in the year President Barack Obama won reelection. The same voters who complained about the national economy rated their local economy much more favorably.

None of this was great news for the incumbent party, and yet …

Observation two: All through the 2024 cycle, a majority of Americans expressed an unfavorable opinion of Trump. Almost one-third of Republicans were either unenthusiastic about his candidacy or outright hostile. Harris was not hugely popular, either. But if the polls were correct, she was just sufficiently less unpopular than Trump.

Arguably undergirding Harris’s popularity advantage was …

Observation three: In the 2022 midterm elections, abortion proved a powerful anti-Republican voting issue. That year in Michigan, a campaign based on abortion rights helped reelect Governor Gretchen Whitmer and flipped both chambers of the state legislature to the Democrats. That same year, almost a million Kansans voted 59 percent to 41 percent to reaffirm state-constitutional protections for abortion. Democrats posted strong results in many other states as well. They recovered a majority in the U.S. Senate, while Republicans won only the narrowest majority in the House of Representatives. In 2024, abortion-rights measures appeared on the ballot in 10 states, including must-win Arizona and Nevada. These initiatives seemed likely to energize many Americans who would likely also cast an anti-Trump vote for president.

If that was not enough—and maybe it was not—I held onto this belief:

Human beings are good at seeing through frauds. Not perfectly good at it. Not always as fast as might be. And not everybody. But a just-sufficient number of us, sooner or later, spot the con.

The Trump campaign was trafficking in frauds. Haitians are eating cats and dogs. Foreigners will pay for the tariffs. The Trump years were the good old days if you just forget about the coronavirus pandemic and the crime wave that happened on his watch. The lying might work up to a point. I believed that the point would be found just on the right side of the line between election and defeat—and not, as happened instead, on the other side.

My mistake.

[Read: Donald Trump’s most dangerous cabinet pick]

In one of the closest elections in modern American history, Trump eked out the first Republican popular-vote victory in 20 years. His margin was about a third the size of President Joe Biden’s margin over him in 2020. For that matter, on the votes counted, Trump’s popular-vote margin over Harris was smaller than Hillary Clinton’s over him in 2016.

Yet narrow as it is, a win it is—and a much different win from 2016. That time, Trump won by the rules, but against the expressed preference of the American people. This time, he won both by the rules and with a plurality of the votes. Trump’s popular win challenges many beliefs and preconceptions, starting with my own.

Through the first Trump administration, critics like me could reassure ourselves that his presidency was some kind of aberration. The repudiation of Trump’s party in the elections of 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022 appeared to confirm this comforting assessment. The 2024 outcome upends it. Trump is no detour or deviation, no glitch or goof.

When future generations of Americans tell the story of the nation, they will have to fit Trump into the main line of the story. And that means the story itself must be rethought.

Trump diverted millions of public dollars to his own businesses, and was returned to office anyway.

He was proved in court to have committed sexual assault, and was returned to office anyway.

He was twice impeached, and was returned to office anyway.

He was convicted of felonies, and was returned to office anyway.

He tried to overthrow an election, and was returned to office anyway.

For millions of Americans, this record was disqualifying. For slightly more Americans, however, it was not. The latter group prevailed, and the United States will be a different country because of them.

American politics has never lacked for scoundrels, cheats, and outright criminals. But their numbers have been thinned, and their misdeeds policed, by strong public institutions. Trump waged a relentless campaign against any and all rules that restrained him. He did not always prevail, but he did score three all-important successes. First, he frightened the Biden administration’s Justice Department away from holding him to account in courts of law in any timely way. Second, he persuaded the courts themselves—including, ultimately, the Supreme Court—to invent new doctrines of presidential immunity to shield him. Third, he broke all internal resistance within the Republican Party to his lawless actions. Republican officeholders, donors, and influencers who had once decried the January 6 attempted coup as utterly and permanently debarring—one by one, Trump brought them to heel.

Americans who cherished constitutional democracy were left to rely on the outcome of the 2024 election to protect their institutions against Trump. It was not enough. Elections are always about many different issues—first and foremost usually, economic well-being. In comparison, the health of U.S. democracy will always seem remote and abstract to most voters.

[Read: Trump’s first defeat]

Early in the American Revolution, a young Alexander Hamilton wrote to his friend John Jay to condemn an act of vigilante violence against the publisher of a pro-British newspaper. Hamilton sympathized with the feelings of the vigilantes, but even in revolutionary times, he insisted, feelings must be guided by rules. Otherwise, people are left to their own impulses, a formula for trouble. “It is not safe,” Hamilton warned, “to trust to the virtue of any people.”

The outcome of an election must be respected, but its wisdom can be questioned. If any divine entity orders human affairs, it may be that providence sent Trump to the United States to teach Americans humility. It Can’t Happen Here is the title of a famous 1930s novel about an imagined future in which the United States follows the path to authoritarianism. Because it didn’t happen then, many Americans have taken for granted that it could not happen now.

Perhaps Americans require, every once in a while, to be jolted out of the complacency learned from their mostly fortunate history. The nation that ratified the Thirteenth Amendment in 1865 was, in important ways, the same one that enacted the Fugitive Slave Act in 1850; the nation that generously sent Marshall Plan aid after the Second World War was compensating for the myopic selfishness of the Neutrality Acts before the war. Americans can take pride in their national story because they have chosen rightly more often than they have chosen wrongly—but the wrong choices are part of the story too, and the wrong choice has been made again now.

“There is no such thing as a Lost Cause because there is no such thing as a Gained Cause,” T. S. Eliot observed in a 1927 essay (here he was writing about the arguments between philosophical Utilitarians and their critics, but his words apply so much more generally). “We fight for lost causes because we know that our defeat and dismay may be the preface to our successors’ victory, though that victory itself will be temporary; we fight rather to keep something alive than in the expectation that anything will triumph.”

So the ancient struggle resumes again: progress against reaction, dignity against domination, commerce against predation, stewardship against spoliation, global responsibility against national chauvinism. No quitting.


Read full article on: theatlantic.com
Why there’s so much gossip and speculation about the Wicked press tour
Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande at the UK premiere of Wicked in London on November 18, 2024. | Ian West/PA Images via Getty Images Over the past few years, the public has stopped treating movie press tours like marketing fluff and started treating them like reality shows. These often tedious stretches of talk-show appearances, red carpets, and press junkets that have been part of the Hollywood grind for decades are suddenly getting as much attention on social media as the films themselves, with the stars’ interactions being picked apart by fans. Since the social media frenzy surrounding the 2022 film Don’t Worry Darling, press tours have become sites of intense speculation often translating to full-blown scandals, from affair speculation from Anyone but You fans to the persistent rumors of everyone versus Justin Baldoni on the set of It Ends With Us. It’s not surprising that this trend has struck the most anticipated (or unavoidable) movie of the year, Wicked. However, it’s manifested in a more uncomfortable way than rumors about Harry Styles’s spit. Its two stars, Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, have become subjects of rampant online theories and scrutiny regarding their red carpet appearances, adding an icky element to an otherwise wholesome movie rollout. All of this press tour nonsense speaks to the free-for-all nature of the internet, particularly in the TikTok age. In its worst cases, this insatiable desire for controversy can override ethical or productive conversations. Inevitably, these narratives become seen as absolute truths.  Wicked’s press tour got the internet’s attention, for better or worse The promotion for Wicked dates all the way back to March when Erivo and Grande presented at the Academy Awards together wearing green and pink gowns representing their respective roles as Elphaba and Glinda. Since then, themed dressing, a la Margot Robbie for Barbie, has been a significant feature of the press tour. The two have also been keen on highlighting their close friendship, one of the overarching themes of the musical. They often hold hands on red carpets and in interviews, in addition to complimenting one another’s talents in interviews. In a now-viral interview with reporter Jake Hamilton, they were asked how they’ve been changed by one another, causing Grande to well up. Both actresses’ tendency to cry and be overly sentimental while discussing the film, about witches and talking goats, has become a bit of a joke on social media before the conversation around them became a lot more serious. @xrikgrande Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande x Jake’s Takes (Jake Hamilton) wicked wickedmovie wickedmovienews wickedmerch wickedmerchandise wickedmoviemerch glinda glindathegoodwitch elphaba emeraldcity popular cynthiaerivo arianagrande ariananews arianagrandenews rembeauty wickedpremiere ♬ original sound – XrikGrande – XrikGrande Even separate from the press tour, Grande’s appearance was already being put under a microscope on social media. In April 2023, the singer posted a video on TikTok urging fans to stop speculating about her body weight after Redditors and other social media users expressed concern about her thinness. Grande told social media users to be “gentler and less comfortable” discussing people’s bodies.  Her response did little to quell those public chatter. In fact, the speculation around a potential eating disorder has torpedoed into a weeks-long discussion among both fans and detractors on social media in the months since Wicked’s press tour began. Social media users have claimed Erivo also looks markedly thinner. Some have even accused the pair of costars of having competitive eating disorders. Meanwhile, others have expressed concern about the effects over Erivo and Grande being so hypervisible at their current state. Some even suggested the two are promoting eating disorders, if not inadvertently triggering people who have them. Others have put the responsibility on their teams for not intervening. In an op-ed for the Standard, India Block writes that the conversation around their appearance is more so “an indictment of Grande and Erivo’s management, the Wicked team, and the entertainment industry as a whole.”  In the wake of an Ozempic fad that’s taken over Hollywood and the concerns it’s raised, it’s not exactly a shock that we got here. Still, it’s unclear how this very public conjecture will benefit anyone. Maybe Grande and Erivo’s well-being was never really the point of the conversation. How press tours became bigger than the movies Considering the point of press tours is to generate press attention, Wicked’s was a massive success, despite the controversies that dogged the film along the way. Compared to the laundry list of other movies from the past few years whose press tours eclipsed the impact of the film itself, Wicked’s mess was positively tame.  While the discourse around the Barbie press tour, perhaps the most famous in recent history, seemed solely focused on star Margot Robbie’s hyper-coordinated fashion moments and director Greta Gerwig’s techniques to bring Barbieland to life, there was juicier drama behind the scenes of other films. When Glen Powell and Sydney Sweeney were busy promoting Anyone but You, their palpable chemistry didn’t go unnoticed. Both had partners going into filming, but Powell left single, after his girlfriend unfollowed Sweeney on Instagram and posted a cryptic breakup message (a source claimed they never hooked up).  This, of course, is what press tours are designed to do: Make audiences believe that the heat between its leads isn’t just an act, that it’s real — and if there are real-world repercussions, welp, that’s showbiz, baby. (Who could forget Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper’s year-long lovefest to promote A Star Is Born?). There are some cases where the on-set chemistry is, in fact, real — whenever Zendaya and Tom Holland get to promote a Spider-Man movie together, the internet collectively squeals — and some cases where it’s so real that people’s lives get blown apart (like when Kristen Stewart, then dating Robert Pattinson, had an affair with Rupert Sanders, the married director of Snow White and the Huntsman).  But the most compelling version of press tour drama is when the cast seems to absolutely hate each other. That’s what thirsty fans were treated to in advance of this fall’s It Ends With Us, in which star Blake Lively clashed with director and co-star Justin Baldoni. Though details were murky and mostly seemed to center on a difference in creative vision between the two (not exactly the stuff of soap operas), it snowballed into fodder for all kinds of other discussions on the controversial themes of the film, which dealt with domestic violence, Baldoni’s previous life as a self-identified “male feminist” voice online, and Lively’s husband Ryan Reynolds, who people tend to have strong opinions about.  2022’s Don’t Worry Darling had both love and hate — buzz about an affair between director and star Olivia Wilde and her lead actor, pop megastar Harry Styles, and rumors of tension between everyone from Wilde and actress Florence Pugh, Pugh and one-time co-star Shia LaBeouf, and, potentially, Styles and co-star Chris Pine, with whom he was alleged to have spit on at the premiere. (The spitting was roundly denied.) All of these films have been major box office successes, begging the question of how much the off-screen drama convinced people to buy tickets. This isn’t always the case; when Joaquin Phoenix caused controversy for his behavior on the 2008 press tour for Two Lovers, which he later described as “performance art,” it didn’t translate to tons of sales.  Perhaps that’s because audiences’ relationship to press tours is extremely different than it was 16 years ago. Thanks to social media, people now have unprecedented access into the lives of celebrities and industry insiders to the point where they’re absorbing the jargon of the business and speculating on the career trajectories of their favorites. Normal fans now regularly discuss whether a certain star is sufficiently “media trained,” congratulating those who are able to sidestep uncomfortable questions and seem unflappable. You’d think it’s counterintuitive — don’t people want their celebrities to be unfiltered and entertaining rather than “brand-safe”? Instead, they cheer on the performance of celebrity rather than the celebrity herself.  In other words, press tours aren’t for the press anymore. They’re for the general public, which has, in turn, become the press — or at least the press that matters. What would once involve a trip to a couple late night talk shows and a glossy magazine cover now mandates appearances on a laundry list of shows, many of them online-only, whether that means shoving down chicken wings on Hot Ones, flirting with Amelia Dimoldenberg on Chicken Shop Date, taking a Vanity Fair lie detector test, or gabbing about your must-have products with GQ. Footage from these shows and red carpet interviews are then clipped and optimized to go viral on social media and become inescapable whether you’re interested in seeing the film or not.  Because so much of press tours now take place online, it’s even easier to feel like what you’re seeing is an authentic portrayal of actors’ lives. It seems less manufactured (though of course the celebrities are there to work). It’s easy to believe that Grande and Erivo really do share Glinda and Elphaba’s complex best friendship — or even, perhaps, that you’re their friend, too. A dramatic or intense off-camera dynamic among a cast now might be exactly what convinces audiences to shell out for movie tickets, because it feels like the stakes are immediate. Wait too long to see it, and you might have missed out on your chance to join in the discourse while it’s still fresh.  In the case of Wicked, it’ll be interesting to see how Part One compares to next year’s promotional tour. How many more times can we see Erivo and Grande in theatrical green and pink gowns crying over how much they love each other? How much more — and please excuse the Wicked pun — popular could it even get? 
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