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The COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. As more than 66,000 world leaders, negotiators, delegates, and observers meet this week in Baku, Azerbaijan at the COP29 climate summit in what’s shaping up to be the hottest year on record, they’re facing a one-two-punch of grim news: greenhouse gas emissions are still climbing, and one of the world’s largest carbon dioxide polluters — yes, the US — is likely to back out of the process altogether.  And after Donald Trump’s win in the 2024 United States presidential election, the US — the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter — is poised to extract more fossil fuels, pull back clean technology incentives, and may once again withdraw the country from the Paris agreement.  To meet international climate targets under the Paris climate agreement, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be falling fast. Yet humanity’s output is on track to reach another record high this year, up 0.8 percent from last year, according to a new report this week from Global Carbon Budget, a research unit at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom. This trajectory means that the goal of capping the rise of global average temperatures below 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) is almost completely out of reach.  2/nGlobal fossil fuel CO2 emissions will go up by 0.8% this year, a continuation of the centennial+ upward trend. This growth is lower than last year at 1.4%. pic.twitter.com/8l0zooSwr1— Pep Canadell (@pepcanadell) November 13, 2024 The conference, where countries hammer out the details of how they will do their share to address climate change, is already off to a rocky start, struggling just to adopt an agenda. France and Argentina have also withdrawn their top negotiators.  “We’ve just had the hottest day, the hottest months, the hottest years, and the hottest decade in the history books,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told the conference. “Climate disasters are piling up — harming those who’ve done the least, the most.” So at a time when the world needs to be doing more than ever to limit warming, transition to clean energy, and adapt to the unavoidable shifts underway, momentum is slowing.  Yet it hasn’t stopped. Though emissions are rising, their rate of increase is slowing down, and a decline may be on the horizon. Wind and solar power are still surging and electric vehicles are gaining market share. Even with diminished political will, the trends are moving in the right direction for the climate. But progress is fragile and far too slow.  What’s driving up global emissions right now? Last year, Climate Analytics, a think tank, anticipated that there was a 70 percent chance that global emissions would begin to decline this year. The new Carbon Budget findings show that the world is more likely to be in the 30 percent scenario. “I think their analysis is generally really robust and sound,” said Neil Grant, a researcher at Climate Analytics. “There is still some chance that emissions might fall this year, but it certainly looks very unlikely.” Digging into the top-line greenhouse gas emissions number reveals a complicated story behind why emissions are up. The big reason is that fossil fuel consumption is up. Oil and gas account for the bulk of this increase in emissions, with coal a distant third. While greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere are rising, their output is level or falling from some of the largest historical emitters. The European Union’s emissions are declining. US emissions are holding steady. China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, is on track to see its output grow by just 0.2 percent this year, one of the tiniest increases in years. Bucking this trend are many developing countries like India, currently the world’s third-largest emitter. India has seen a huge increase in renewable energy deployment, but its still developing energy from all sources, including fossil fuels. The Global Carbon Budget found India’s fossil fuel emissions are on track to increase 4.6 percent this year. There are a few additional factors that drove up emissions this year. The lingering effects of El Niño helped push global temperatures to record highs. Extraordinary heat waves in India and China pushed up energy demand for cooling, and that meant burning more fossil fuels. “We’re beginning to see some of those negative feedback loops where the climate crisis itself is impacting on the energy system and making it harder to reduce emissions,” Grant said.  Still, there are glimmers of good news. More than 30 countries have already managed to grow their economies while cutting carbon dioxide pollution, a clear sign that coal, oil, and natural gas are not the only paths to prosperity. These countries have already summited their emissions peaks and are now on the descent, breaking a pattern that has held for nearly two centuries. “Most countries in the world, even if they haven’t peaked yet, you see that the trajectory is approaching peak, and in countries where emissions are declining, usually they’re declining faster,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, a researcher at the University of Exeter who led the Global Carbon Budget report.  What’s bending the curve? Friedlingstein said it’s because countries are switching to cleaner energy sources. That means turning away from carbon-spewing coal toward natural gas, which emits about half of the greenhouse gasses per unit of energy, or using energy from the sun and the wind, which emits close to none. Electrifying vehicles so they don’t have to burn oil is another key factor. Increasing energy efficiency is also negating rising energy demand.  Government policies initially drove these trends, but now economics have started to take the wheel. Tactics to reduce greenhouse gas emissions often save money and energy sources like wind and solar power are often the cheapest way to put electrons on the power grid.  It’s important to note that burning fossil fuels isn’t the only way humanity is increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere; damaging and destroying landscapes that absorb carbon — forests, mangroves, wetlands, prairies — also lead to a net increase in greenhouse gasses. Carbon dioxide isn’t the only greenhouse gas of note either. Methane, which is about 30 times more potent when it comes to trapping heat, is also contributing to warming. It can leak from natural gas infrastructure and is also a byproduct of agriculture.  Conversely, restoring ecosystems that soak up emissions from the air can keep warming in check. Unchecked deforestation is slowing down in many parts of the world and in others, it’s beginning to reverse. “The long-term trend in forestation is going in the right direction,” Friedlingstein said. “This is what helps to balance the book with fossil fuel emissions.”  Where greenhouse gas emissions go is up to us now While greenhouse gas emissions are now increasing at a tiny fraction of their pace throughout much of the industrial era, there’s no sign at the moment that they’ve reached a peak, nor a guarantee that they will decline.   Friedlingstein said we may be in an era where emissions plateau, still adding to the volume of heat trapping gasses in the atmosphere at the highest levels in history. And a plateau could stretch on for a long time. Environmental groups have raised the alarm that the ravenous power demand from data centers behind artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies would spike emissions upward again, but much of that demand could still be met with renewable energy or nuclear power, and so far, they haven’t led to a carbon dioxide spike.  On the other hand, countries can take deliberate steps to bend emissions curves downward at a faster rate. Countries need to set ambitious climate goals for themselves, invest in cleaner energy alternatives, and hold themselves accountable. “In a sense, it’s a simple recipe,” Friedlingstein said.  In practice, it remains an extraordinary challenge.  Many countries are coping with inflation, making it harder to invest in big projects. Some are worried about securing their energy resources amid fears of international conflict, like how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted natural gas supplies in Europe. Many parts of the world experiencing the most acute damages from climate change are also those that contributed the least to the problem and have the fewest resources to adapt to it.  Clean energy needs to scale up further as well. So does energy efficiency. About 30 percent of global electricity came from low-emissions sources in 2023. “While renewables have grown fast, demand has grown faster,” said Grant. “And we know that the tipping point of peaking will come when renewables grow faster than energy demand growth.” He added that the distribution of clean energy technology so far has skewed mainly toward wealthy countries and not those facing the largest increases in energy demand, biggest spikes in air pollution, and worst impacts of climate change. The United Nations’s Independent High Level Expert Group on Climate Finance estimated that poorer countries will need $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 to deal with global warming. This is once again shaping up to be one of the biggest sticking points at COP29 as negotiators suss out who is to pay how much and by when.  Though the world is likely to miss one of the most ambitious climate targets, the case for curbing greenhouse gas emissions remains strong. Every bit of averted warming — every degree or even fraction of a degree — reduces damages, saves money, and protects lives. The open question is how much we’ll do to change course.

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On Friday night, two boxers will take to the ring at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. One is among the greatest heavyweight boxers of all time, the “baddest man on the planet,” “Iron” Mike Tyson. The other is Jake Paul, a zillennial influencer who built his career on prank videos, making bad music, and terrorizing his neighbors. One might reasonably wonder what chance the internet’s most obnoxious star, a cruiserweight, stands against Tyson; one might also reasonably wonder how a 58-year-old, no matter how practiced, could beat a man 31 years younger. But to overfocus on the mechanics of boxing or of athleticism in general is to miss the point. If all audiences wanted to see was the world’s best boxers fighting each other, well, those matches would probably enjoy much more hype. Instead, the lion’s share of the attention goes to the rash of influencers-turned-boxers who concoct feuds with each other and solve them with their fists.  Paul and Tyson now occupy this much newer realm of the world’s oldest sport: celebrities whose controversial pasts provide ammo for a public who has strong feelings about both. While Friday’s match is a professional one (meaning it is regulated by a sanctioning body, will count on their records, and can be betted on, at least in certain states), it will be more spectacle than sport. Organized by Paul’s promotion company, Most Valuable Promotions, and Netflix, which will stream the match live, it’s also part of the streaming service’s attempt to reach young male viewers and the advertisers who want to woo them.  The match is expected to be a ratings hit, in part thanks to Netflix’s estimated 282 million subscribers, the largest of any platform. Originally scheduled for July, the match was postponed to November after Tyson had an ulcer flare-up on a flight. Paul, due to his age and recent record (10 wins, one loss, and seven knockouts) was already a favorite to win, but now the betting odds are even more in his favor, currently standing at minus-210, per BetMGM Sportsbook.  View this post on Instagram A post shared by Netflix US (@netflix) Tyson’s participation has led to controversy: Eddie Hearn, one of the industry’s biggest promoters, told ESPN he won’t support the fight due to the danger it could further cause to Tyson’s health. “That was the moment they [MVP] should have realized that this was actually a bad idea,” he said of the ulcer. “You only need to speak to him and look at him to know this guy should not be in a ring again. … If I was Jake Paul, I’d just feel a little bit embarrassed to be honest with you. … This is dangerous, irresponsible and, in my opinion, disrespectful to the sport of boxing.” Nakisa Bidarian, co-founder of Most Valuable Promotions, however, maintains it will be a fair fight. “Paul’s never been hit by someone like Mike Tyson,” he told ESPN. “So people can say about the danger for Mike Tyson, he’s older. What about the danger for Jake Paul, who’s never fought at this weight? He’s never been in there with a true heavyweight in his career. You could say it to both sides.”  It’s worth asking: What’s in it for everyone involved here? Paul has made his incentives explicit: “I’m here to make $40 million and knock out a legend,” he said at an August news conference (Paul’s net worth is reportedly around $80 million). Tyson, according to reports, will stand to earn around half of that, doubling his reported net worth of $10 million. In addition to the payout, Paul made a video announcing he’d pay Tyson $5 million if Tyson can last more than four rounds. Should he fail, Tyson must get a tattoo that reads, “I love Jake Paul.” (Tyson responded in an interview that he’d only agree to another $20 million.) As for Tyson, it’s yet another attempt at a return to the spotlight in a career full of them. “This fight is not going to change my life financially,” he told LadBible. “I’m seeking my glory.” After his release from prison in 1995, he fought in a series of comeback matches, including one with Evander Holyfield, whom he would later bite on both ears in one of the most controversial moments in sports history. In the mid-2000s, his $300 million earnings squandered and bankrupt, Tyson announced a series of exhibition fights to “get out of this financial quagmire,” he said at the time, though it was canceled after just one fight. Tyson last fought in a 2020 exhibition match against 2003 World Heavyweight champion Roy Jones Jr., and now runs a successful cannabis company.  Netflix, meanwhile, has been pushing heavily into live events over the last year. In January, it acquired the rights to WWE’s Raw, and earlier this year, it livestreamed the SAG Awards for the first time, as well as other live events like the Roast of Tom Brady, Joey Chestnut’s Labor Day hot dog eating contest, and John Mulaney’s talk show. On Christmas Day it will stream two NFL games. Rich Greenfield, a partner at LightShed Ventures who analyzes the streaming space, says it could be a “powerful tool” in the company’s bid for advertisers. “If you’re going to be in the ad business, the power of something that has to be watched at that moment and brings together millions of people is really important for advertising,” Greenfield said. Rather than buying up the streaming rights to, say, all of the big sports organizations, or major awards like the Oscars or Grammys, Netflix’s strategy appears to be creating smaller, less costly moments of their own. “Netflix already has the subscribers. It’s now about creating unique events to drive advertising sales,” Greenfield says. Those advertisers are after a core demographic: men, particularly young men who pay attention to influencers like Paul. These young men don’t necessarily follow boxing, but they do find recognizable faces compelling. As Brady Brickner-Wood explained in the New York Times Magazine last year, “Influencer boxers know something boxing purists don’t: that a fight without a narrative, no matter how poetic its execution, is just a hollow technical exercise.” No doubt there’s also another draw for viewers who know of Paul and his ilk but don’t necessarily like them: “When you buy a Jake Paul fight, part of what you are buying is the chance to see him get punched in the face,” Kelefa Sanneh wrote in the New Yorker last year.  In anticipation for the fight, Netflix released a three-episode docuseries following Tyson and Paul as they prepare for battle. It is, of course, mere marketing: The nastier elements of Paul and Tyson’s pasts are glossed over. It does not mention the fact that Tyson was convicted of raping an 18-year-old in 1992 for which he served three years in jail, or that he was recently sued for raping another woman in 1990. It doesn’t include the fact that he is alleged to have physically abused his former wife, actress Robin Givens; one biography reports that Tyson admitted to having hit her and calling it “the best punch I’ve ever thrown in my life.” Rather, the series shows a few clips of Tyson in handcuffs while the voiceover refers to “his life continu[ing] to spiral downward.” (Paul was also fined for promoting a crypto scam and has been accused of sexual assault by fellow influencer Justine Paradise as well as model and actress Railey Lollie.) Instead, viewers will discover that the idea for the match was born from an ayahuasca ceremony Paul attended in Costa Rica, where he had a vision of himself fighting Tyson. It then shows Paul meditating and repeating to himself, “I, Jake Joseph Paul, will knock out and defeat Iron Mike Tyson.” He then reached out to Tyson, who enthusiastically agreed, according to Paul.  In one of its opening scenes, the docuseries asks, “Why fight when you have all the fame and money in the world?” The answer, naturally, is that no amount of fame and money are ever enough for people who stake their lives on such things. To be a celebrity in 2024 is to understand that the world moves on the moment people scroll away from your face, that your singular role is to produce an ever-increasing mountain of content so that your face might find them again. Though Paul and Tyson occupy vastly different places in modern pop culture, they both understand that fame and money are perhaps the only things worth getting punched in the face for. 

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