The Secret of Trump’s Economic Message
When Donald Trump speaks about the economy, he sounds like a child. China gives us billions of dollars via tariffs. American auto workers take imported cars out of a box and stick the pieces together. These are very light paraphrases of statements he made today at the Economic Club of Chicago, in a sometimes combative interview with the Bloomberg editor in chief John Micklethwait.
Yet voters consistently say they trust Trump more to handle the economy than they do Kamala Harris. Why? Perhaps because, when Trump speaks about the economy, he sounds like a child. Yes, he has a reputation as a businessman, and voters consistently trust Republicans more on the issue (even though the economy fares better under Democrats). But Trump’s reductionism may be the real source of his appeal when it comes to the economy and other policy areas. (“Build the wall”; “make NATO pay their fair share.”) By restricting his discussion to the bluntest, broadest, and vaguest of terms, he sells an appealing illusion.
[David A. Graham: The fakest populism you ever saw]
“We’re all about growth,” he pronounced at the start of the interview, as though this were a bold, contrarian stance. A moment later, he added, “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff.”
Poor Micklethwait was no match for this. The former editor of The Economist put up a valiant effort, but he was bringing facts to a rhetoric fight. Micklethwait asked Trump about the cost of tariffs to the American economy, and Trump responded with a long “sir” story about a supposed friend named John who builds car factories. (“I will not give his last name, because he might not like it.”) Micklethwait asked about how a trade war would affect the 40 million American jobs that rely on trade, and Trump told stories about John Deere and a conversation he had with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. None of these answered the question, and it didn’t matter.
“You keep bringing up these individual examples, but the overall effect is going to be dramatic,” a frustrated Micklethwait said.
“I agree it will have a massive effect, positive,” Trump shot back.
When the interviewer asked whether a trade war would endanger relationships with allies, Trump rejected the premise of alliances. “Our allies have taken advantage of us, more so than our enemies,” he said. He praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and all but confirmed reporting by Bob Woodward that the men have remained in touch since he left office (“If I did, it’s a smart thing”), and deemed the poor pariah nation North Korea “a very serious power.”
Trying another tack, Micklethwait warned that a trade war could endanger the use of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, thus weakening American economic power. “If I’m elected, the dollar is so secure,” Trump said. “Your reserve currency is the strongest it’ll ever be.” He gave no explanation for what this could mean or why it might be true. But it sure sounds nice, doesn’t it?
The impulse to bluff comes from Trump’s many decades of business experience. For Trump the businessman, confidence and bombast have always been more important than facts and reason. This has generally worked out for Trump, who is, after all, a billionaire. But at times, it has been disastrous, as his four corporate bankruptcies demonstrate.
[Scott Lincicome and Sophia Bagley: Trump’s deranged plan to lower food prices by raising them]
Trump’s record as president is similarly mixed. He imposed some tariffs on China, but a deal he struck to encourage Chinese imports of American goods flopped. His trade war disproportionately disadvantaged his own supporters. He did not deliver on his promise to bring back manufacturing jobs. His main success was a broad tax cut. During the last year of his term, Trump saw the American economy collapse because of COVID, though he cannot take all of the blame for that.
Considering the former president’s checkered history, Micklethwait’s desire to probe him on the facts is understandable, but it’s also futile. Trump is selling a fantasy, not a white paper. As he repeatedly danced around the questions today, he joked about his oratorical approach: “I call it the weave. As long as you end up at the right location in the end.” Trump believes that the right location for him is the White House. The weave just might get him there again.