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Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) looks down before delivering a concession speech during the election at Faneuil Hall November 3, 2004, in Boston. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images In 2004, life as a Democrat was pretty bleak. The party lost a presidential election to George W. Bush for a second time. Adding insult to injury, Democratic nominee John Kerry lost the popular vote. The party was seemingly losing ground, after having won the popular vote in 2000 and losing the Electoral College thanks only to an exceedingly close (and contested) loss in Florida. It was a different world back then, but Democrats sensed that voters resoundingly had rejected what they had to offer — even while running against a Republican candidate broadly considered vulnerable. In 2024, life as a Democrat is pretty bleak in many of the same ways it was two decades ago. Ballots are still being counted after the presidential election, but the Democratic presidential nominee is on track to lose the popular vote for the first time in 20 years. That popular vote loss has forced a broader reckoning: Winning the popular vote “acted as a kind of salve: Yes, the Electoral College may have delivered Bush and Trump the presidency, but on some level, their administrations were illegitimate, unsanctioned by the popular will,” said Nicole Hemmer, a political historian at Vanderbilt University focused on media, conservatism, and the presidency. Without a “but the popular vote” fallback, Democrats are confronting a harsh reality. “For the first time since 2004, this election felt like an embrace of conservatism, albeit a much different kind of conservatism than the one associated with the 2004 winner,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.  Now, as in 2004, Democrats are engaging in what can be generously viewed as introspection (or, less generously, a “circular firing squad”) to chart a new course back to power and assess what went so very wrong this time around. The blame for that is up for debate: It may have been the economy, Democrats’ embrace of “wokeness,” President Joe Biden’s decision to run for a second term, the fact that many Americans actually liked what Trump was selling, or any number of other factors. Though it may take months for what specifically went wrong to become clearer, the 2004 election and its aftermath might provide some insight into how Democrats can move forward. After all, four years after the Bush-Kerry debacle, Democrats won the 2008 election in a landslide, with Barack Obama beating John McCain by nearly 10 million votes and entering the White House with massive congressional majorities at his back. What Democrats today can learn from the party’s loss in 2004  There are obvious differences between 2004 and 2024. The aughts election was dominated by 9/11 and the Global War on Terror that followed. This year, those topics barely registered, while Trump and Biden’s respective records, the economy, and the culture wars took center stage. Further, Kerry’s campaign started with winning a very competitive primary, whereas Vice President Kamala Harris took over after Biden stepped aside and gave her his endorsement. But the vibes among Democrats are similar, and what they do next may determine whether they see a revival in the 2026 midterms and the elections that follow. Overall, Democrats took three lessons from 2004. Whether one believes those lessons apply to 2024 depends, in large part, on what one believes went wrong for Harris in her loss to Trump. But, given Democrats’ successful recovery from 2004, it’s a history lesson worth taking. 1) They pursued a 50-state strategy Following the 2004 loss, a popular meme rocketed around the (still somewhat nascent) internet: a map that depicted the Democratic “United States of Canada” as existing along the coasts and a Republican “Jesusland” encompassing the vast majority of land in the US. If that seems reductive and problematic on multiple fronts, you’re not wrong, but the map, aforementioned problems aside, served in part as shorthand for pointing out Democrats’ turnout problem. Yes, Kerry had turned out 9 million more votes than Al Gore had four years before, but he still fell almost 3 million short of Bush. That gap revealed a vulnerability for Democrats: their inability to mobilize a broad coalition in swing states and beyond that would translate into an Electoral College victory. Kerry couldn’t summon the kind of voter enthusiasm necessary to match Bush’s strong performance in rural areas and outer suburbs. To goose turnout, Democrats looked to Howard Dean, who ran a populist primary campaign but lost to Kerry. Elected as chair of the Democratic National Committee in 2005, Dean became a proponent of a “50-state strategy.” The idea behind this strategy was that Democrats need to try to compete in every state, maximizing turnout in Democratic areas while cutting into Republican margins where possible. This year, former DNC chair Donna Brazile, like Dean, believes part of the solution could be the return of the 50-state strategy. They’re not alone: “We cannot run in just the few states that we need,” said Claire Potter, a professor emerita of history at the New School. “The Democrats have, in some ways, really backed off that strategy, and I think they’re wrong to have done so.” The Harris campaign — for very understandable reasons — did not utilize Dean’s method. With only a few months to campaign, Harris focused on swing states and select demographic groups. She largely did not visit historically “safe” Democratic states. While it’s not clear that she could have stanched the bleeding in those places, there were significant rightward shifts from New York City to Southern California. And it’s not clear how well the 50-states theory has aged. After all, Hillary Clinton ran up the popular vote total after winning big in solidly blue states, but she got to serve as president for exactly zero days. That strategy was later credited with helping Democrats make gains in the 2006 midterms and with helping to put Obama in the White House in 2008. And after 2024, where Democrats lost ground in just about every county in the US, a plan to boost the party’s popularity nationally is not one it can afford to ignore. 2) Democrats reevaluated their messaging In 2004, Democrats didn’t have a response to the rise of the right-wing blog Drudge Report and Fox News’s consolidation around Republicans. Kerry was often cast as an elitist with an expensive haircut, and right-wing commentators successfully turned one of his strengths as a candidate — his military service in Vietnam — into a liability through viral attack ads.  “There is this kind of disingenuous attack on Kerry as the Harvard boy, as somebody who’s faking having really fought in Vietnam,” Potter said. “Bush is able to play the card of being an outsider, even though he is an incumbent, even though he went to Yale, even though his father was president.” In response, Democrats sought to reevaluate their overall messaging strategy. The influential book Don’t Think of an Elephant! by the cognitive linguist George Lakoff served as a guidebook for reframing debates in their own terms and for explaining their policy positions by evoking values of empathy, fairness, and community without adopting the language of conservatives. They also embraced Dean — dubbed by the Washington Post in 2005 as an “outsider insurgent” who wore beat-up shoes and flew coach, spending most of his time outside of DC.  In 2024, Democrats were again outflanked by a new Republican media machine — this time, including the likes of Joe Rogan and Theo Von — to deliver their message. Harris, for her part, declined to appear on Rogan’s podcast, reportedly for fear of how it would be perceived within the party. 3) Democrats sought to become a party of ideas Kerry campaign adviser Kenneth Baer said that, in 2024, Democrats repeated their mistake in 2004 of defining themselves as being the opposite of Republicans.  “Smart people seem to have come around to the idea that you can’t just say Trump’s terrible,” Baer said, arguing that Democrats had the same issue in 2004, when Kerry spent much of his time on the campaign trail criticizing Bush instead of defining affirmative reasons to vote for Democrats. That called for Democrats to “rethink all our policies and our approaches,” Baer said. Baer went on to found the magazine Democracy: A Journal of Ideas as a platform for those ideas. That’s where Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), then a Harvard Law School professor, published a 2007 manifesto about how financial products like mortgages and credit cards should be regulated by the government. That idea would later give rise to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Today, some Democrats say the party still needs to better connect with the working class, but Baer noted that there is disagreement about what that means and whether that should involve an economic or cultural approach.  The limits of political strategy Democrats would very much like a silver-bullet strategy that guarantees them a post-2004-esque recovery. But the truth is, political strategy and planning can only go so far. And that may be one of the biggest lessons from two decades ago. The party’s return to power in 2008 was principally driven by two factors: Obama was a generationally politically gifted politician. George W. Bush was a generationally terrible president whose second term featured a bungled and deadly response to Hurricane Katrina; an even more disastrous and deadly handling of the Iraq War (the false pretenses of which came fully to light during Bush’s second term); and the 2008 financial crisis and ensuing economic meltdown. “The conditions that would collapse Bush’s support in his second term were already in place when he won reelection,” Hemmer, the political historian, said.  So how Democrats do in 2026, 2028, and beyond will likely have a lot to do with Trump’s performance during his second term. Today, preliminary exit polls suggest Trump is unpopular, his proposed tariffs could be disastrous for the economy, Democrats may mobilize against his policies as they did in his first term, and he may only have a very narrow House majority to work with, potentially hampering his agenda.  If such a collapse happens, however, Democrats also have to be prepared to seize on it.

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Christmas lights at a house in Dyker Heights, Brooklyn, New York City. | Roy Rochlin/Getty Images After last week’s presidential election, something unusual started happening in my neighborhood: On a walk to a wine bar on November 11, I saw stoops lined with pine garlands next to skeletons and spider webs, relics from Halloween a mere week and a half prior. Someone had set up two life-size nutcrackers on their front porch; someone else’s brownstone windows offered a peep into their living room, where a fully lit Christmas tree was already aglow inside.  But according to people all over the country, it wasn’t just my neighborhood. The early start to the most festive season seemed to be a reaction to — what else — the results of the election, which plunged many Americans into an uncanny mood they haven’t experienced since the last time Donald Trump was elected in 2016. Or, as Massachusetts social worker Dylana Becker put it: “Holiday lights because my daughter may have no fucking rights.” Becker started putting up Christmas decor on November 6th. Rachael Kay Albers, a marketing professional in Chicago, told me she “just bought a 10-foot tree, not even on sale,” with the philosophy, “Fuck it, it’s time for twinkles.” Rachel Lewis, a social media manager in North Carolina, erected an inflatable penguin on her roof that same week. “Our neighbor said, ‘Isn’t it early?’ And we said ‘No, it’s not.’” Much like how interest in elaborate skincare routines exploded in the wake of Trump’s 2016 election, Americans seem to be diverting their anxieties into holiday cheer, if only by sheer force. It’s not exactly a mystery as to why: In uncertain times, we seek escape and comfort, and nothing occupies a cozier or more nostalgic place in the American imagination than Christmas. Couple that with a late Thanksgiving, and people are seeing little point in waiting for the turkey to be done to put up their trees.  For some, Christmas came even before the polls closed. Mia Moran, a children’s book editor in Queens, said she went shopping for Christmas pillows at Target in early November. “This year it just feels like we needed something,” she tells me. “[Christmas] is a good outlet, and also a neutral sense of pure joy. It’s not charged in any way.”  @alessandrabrontsema Decorating for Christmas brings me so much joy ✨???? #christmas #christmasdecor #holidaydecor #christmasdecorating #holidaydecorating #christmastree #christmastok ♬ Carol of the Bells – Instrumental – Russell Davis & Roy Vogt & Michael Green & Marty Crum & Jeff Kirk & David Angell & Carrie Bailey & Steve Patrick & Nancy Allen & Ginger Newman & Sarah Valley It’s ironic, considering the decades-long right-wing mania about the supposed “war on Christmas” by the media establishment. This year, for the first time in recent memory, perhaps it’s the left who’s more fervently embracing the holiday. “When the polls close in your state, you are officially allowed to begin playing Christmas music,” tweeted First Amendment lawyer Adam Steinbaugh on the evening of the election. After it became clear Trump was winning, comedian Mike Drucker posted, “I’m listening to Christmas music starting tomorrow cuz fuck this shit.” According to the Wall Street Journal, forcing holiday spirit is a “healthy response” to election stress, one that “beats sitting there saying, ‘Oh my god, this is an existential threat to the world and I’m going to enter a doom and gloom loop,’” explained Kevin Smith, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.  It’s also entirely possible that it isn’t just the election that’s caused this year’s bout of “Christmas creep,” a term that’s been discussed and debated since the 1980s. The phenomenon itself has existed far longer, however: Early Christmas sales (and complaints about them) can be traced back to the Victorian era. It’s typical for customers to be annoyed by businesses using far-off holidays as marketing tools. What’s less common is for Americans to seemingly all agree, individually, that the time for twinkle lights is now.  This year, per Axios, retail experts say that holiday deals are starting early partly because of the fact that there are five fewer days between Black Friday and Christmas this year, and partly because of election uncertainty. Lowe’s, for instance, launched its holiday decor line in July, a month earlier than the year before, while Amazon moved its Prime Day up to early October.  America’s favorite coping mechanism has always been buying stuff, and if Christmas spending is any indication, we’ve been getting steadily more anxious for years. The National Retail Federation expects the typical consumer will spend $902 on Christmas gifts and decor, up $25 from last year, reports Business Insider. Prophecy Market Insights projects that the Christmas decoration industry will nearly double in the next decade, from $8.45 billion in 2024 to $13 billion in 2034.  Charles Scheland, a professional modern dancer in Manhattan, says that in addition to putting up his tree, string lights, and nutcracker statue, he’s also already started pulling his favorite Christmas music to teach in his dance classes. He says that part of that is due to the shock and disappointment of what began as a galvanizing Democratic campaign. “I really think that the joy of the Harris campaign and the optimism of that movement got people excited, and to have that so deafening crushed, people just want to get some of that joy,” he says.  There’s also another reason for the skip from Halloween to Christmas, he posits. “Thanksgiving is a tricky holiday because it is often celebrated with extended family, and sometimes we don’t agree with our extended family. So rather than getting into the trickier holiday, we’re just jumping ahead to the next.” In the years since 2020, holidays, and to an even greater extent, seasons, have become celebrations not just IRL in the form of decor and activities, but online. People on TikTok and Instagram began to document their “winter arcs,” their “Meg Ryan falls,” and their hot girl summers as a way of marking the passage of time when it seemed like the only way to feel alive was watching someone else’s life through a screen. As I’ve argued before, dividing one’s life into seasons and leaning heavily into seasonal aesthetics is a way of romanticizing your life while also dissociating from it, a potentially useful tool when it feels like nothing makes sense.  I’m not immune, either. After my unexpectedly festive neighborhood walk, two wines deep, I decided that I absolutely needed to make a reservation at one of those bars in Manhattan where they deck it out with festive decor for the month of December. In most respects, these are miserable establishments — the kind of bars that are overpriced and crowded to the point of sweltering, places marketed with the promise of quaintness and communal cheer but mostly exist as traps for tourists to take photos in. But in that moment, being surrounded by a million twinkling wreaths and giant red bows and exhausted holiday shoppers from New Jersey sounded like not the worst place to be. In fact, I could think of much worse things: a decaying democracy, or a man investigated for sex crimes being installed as attorney general, for instance. So screw it, it’s Christmas now. May we all find merriment where we can.

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President-elect Donald Trump opened his transition back to the White House this week with a flurry of personnel announcements that sent forceful messages to major constituent groups, potential political rivals and the country at large.

President-elect Donald Trump speaks at a House Republicans Conference meeting at the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill on November 13, 2024, in Washington, DC. | Allison Robbert/Getty Images With President-elect Donald Trump’s latest slate of extreme or controversial nominees — Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence, Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health and Human Services secretary — has come the question about whether even a Republican-controlled Senate will actually confirm them all. But what if that’s asking the wrong question? What if Trump has no intention of asking the Senate’s permission? Throughout the transition, Trump has made several references to his intent to use “recess appointments” to get his appointees in place more quickly. This refers to a longstanding presidential power to fill jobs that typically require Senate confirmation if Congress is in recess. The Constitution included that power in an era when reconvening a recessed Congress would take months of travel time; more recently, presidents have used it to get around Senate opposition for certain picks. Yet Trump’s references to recess appointments were vague, and it was unclear exactly why he sounded so insistent on them. The new Congress would not need to recess for some time. The Senate surely would consider his top nominees quickly. The new Republican majority would likely be deferential to most of his choices, and the Democratic minority has no power to actually block any of them. So why would recess appointments be necessary so soon? We got a potential clue about what Trump may have in mind when the well-connected conservative legal activist Ed Whelan heard a rumor. “Hope it’s wrong,” Whelan wrote on X Wednesday, “but I’m hearing through the grapevine about this bonkers plan: Trump would adjourn both Houses of Congress under Article II, section 3, and then recess-appoint his Cabinet.”  This may sound technical, but it would amount to a massive power grab: Trump would be forcing the Senate into a recess. This would mean that, for many of the most important posts in the federal government, Trump could simply ignore the Senate, thumbing his nose at the body to impose everyone he wanted, no matter how corrupt, extreme, or controversial they are. Moreover, it would mean Trump would be choosing to crash headlong into one of the biggest guardrails constraining the president’s authority: the Senate’s confirmation powers. If Trump were to try this and get away with it, Senate confirmation powers would effectively no longer exist. Currently, this remains in the rumor stage, and if it is truly something being considered by Trump, it remains unclear whether he’d go through with it. But it makes a lot of sense. It may reflect the influence of Elon Musk and the Silicon Valley right in Trump’s camp — it’s a risky, norm-shattering attempt to disrupt the way politics, governance, and presidential power work. (Musk has indeed been tweeting about recess appointments.)  It would mean starting off Trump’s term with a high-stakes showdown and certain litigation — with no one certain about exactly how things would play out. Why this recess appointment plot would be different than past recess appointment controversies Recess appointments have been the subject of political and legal controversy in the past. In 2012, President Barack Obama was frustrated at the Republican Senate minority’s constant filibusters of many of his key nominations. (At the time, 60 votes were needed to get nominees past a filibuster; rule changes have since lowered that threshold to a simple majority.) He wanted to use recess appointments to fill some posts, but Republicans were blocking the Senate from going into recess at all. Even though nearly everyone left town, they continued to hold “pro forma” sessions where nothing actually happened. So Obama decided to just do recess appointments anyway, filling three National Labor Relations Board seats and the directorship of the newly-created Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The administration argued that the pro forma sessions were fake and Congress was actually in recess; therefore, Obama could do recess appointments. But the Supreme Court unanimously rejected his argument, saying it was up to Congress to determine whether it was in recess. Trump’s plan would be far more brazen. The Constitution states that during a congressional session, both chambers of Congress must consent if they want to adjourn Congress for more than three days. But it also says that “in Case of Disagreement between them, with Respect to the Time of Adjournment,” the president “may adjourn them to such Time as he shall think proper.” In layperson’s terms, that would seem to say that if the House and Senate disagree on when to adjourn, the president can force them to do so. This power has never been used by the president. But according to Whelan’s sources in the conservative legal movement, this is the plan Trump’s team is putting together. First, Trump would get the House of Representatives under Speaker Mike Johnson to propose adjourning Congress. Then, if the Senate refused to do so, President Trump would step in, saying that because the two chambers disagreed, he’d use his power to force the Senate to adjourn. He would then make recess appointments to his heart’s content. Such appointments would then inevitably be challenged in court, and the Supreme Court would eventually determine whether they were legal. Whelan has gone public because he’s appalled by this idea. “It’s a fundamental general feature of our system of separated powers that the president shall submit his nominations for major offices to the Senate for approval,” he wrote in National Review. “That feature plays a vital role in helping to ensure that the president makes quality picks.” If Trump pulled this off, it would be an utter humiliation for incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Republican senators generally — it basically would be taking a wrecking ball to the power of the Senate.  The scheme would also require, as Whelan points out, the cooperation of Speaker Johnson and his House majority. But it is far from clear whether Republicans in either chamber — or the courts — have the inclination or the spine to stand up to an unprecedented power grab by Trump. And the rumors of it bode ill for other Trumpian abuses of power that will surely lie ahead.

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