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If Harris loses, expect Democrats to move right

Kamala Harris standing at a lectern with hands clasped.
Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at Washington Crossing Historic Park in Washington Crossing, Pennsylvania, on October 16, 2024. | Nathan Morris/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Democrats are currently focused on the fight against Donald Trump. But quietly, factions within the party are preparing contingency plans for a different battle: the one over how to interpret a Kamala Harris loss. 

Polls of the 2024 election show the closest presidential race in modern memory. For Harris, defeat is roughly as likely as victory. The former outcome is sure to trigger a fierce, intra-Democratic debate over what the party should learn from losing the White House (twice) to an unpopular demagogue.

Already, moderates in the party are seeding the narrative that Harris was doomed by the Biden administration’s excessive deference to left-wing interest groups and aversion to orthodox economics. Some progressives suggest that Harris may be undone by her ties to big business, failure to articulate a “vision for the country,” and complicity in Israeli atrocities in Gaza

It’s impossible to say with absolute certainty which — if any — of these theories would become conventional wisdom in the event of a second Trump victory. 

Often, when a party suffers an electoral rebuke, the faction that led it into the wilderness loses influence within the coalition. After Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016, the Democratic Party became more progressive, ceding influence to some of her left-wing critics. 

Yet no wing of the Democratic Party can claim full ownership of either the Biden presidency or Harris campaign. On the one hand, Biden was the moderate candidate in the 2020 primary. And Kamala Harris is now running to the right of Biden 2020, touting a more modest fiscal agenda than the president’s, championing a conservative border security bill, promising to appoint a bipartisan council of advisers, and pledging to solicit input from “the business sector” while in office

On the other hand, progressives wielded tremendous influence over economic policy in the Biden White House. And Harris is only five years removed from campaigning as a proponent of Medicare-for-all and the Green New Deal — issue positions that Trump’s team has relentlessly highlighted. What’s more, the fact that Harris secured the Democratic nomination without competing in a primary makes the question of who within the party owns her success or failure even more ambiguous.

All this said, I suspect that anyone who believes a Harris defeat would strengthen the party’s progressive wing is kidding themselves. On the contrary, I think Trump’s election would push the Democrats rightward or at least consolidate the moderate turn that the party has already taken. 

This would not be a happy development, from my perspective. Under Biden, the Democratic Party’s positioning on many issues has been to the right of my own preferences. I believe the United States would be best served by a more generous social welfare state, higher levels of immigration, and a foreign policy that showed less tolerance for the human rights violations of US allies. But the political case for some degree of moderation in the wake of a Harris loss will be plausible. And I believe that case will win out for three reasons:

First, the unusual conditions that led Democrats to move left after their first loss to Trump no longer hold. 

Second, one of progressives’ perennial arguments against the political necessity of moderation — that Democrats can mobilize low-propensity young and nonwhite voters through bold progressivism — has grown less credible over the past eight years.

Finally, a Trump victory would almost certainly lead to a full extension of his 2017 tax cuts — and, if the Republican gets his way, new reductions in corporations’ tax liabilities. This would swell the federal deficit, thereby rendering moderate Democrats more averse to ambitious new social welfare spending, such as that proposed by Biden during his first year in office.

This is not to say that a Harris loss would cause Democrats to re-embrace the across-the-board centrism of Bill Clinton’s second term. Rather, Democrats would likely remain staunchly progressive in areas where left-wing positioning has little political cost.

But losing a second election to an undisciplined reactionary probably won’t convince Democrats that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were insufficiently left-wing on immigration, criminal justice, or fiscal policy. A second Trump victory would therefore probably mean not only a more conservative federal government, but also, in all likelihood, a more moderate Democratic Party.

We’re not in 2017 anymore

The last time Democrats lost to Trump, they proceeded to move left: Bernie Sanders’s Medicare-for-all bill gained sponsors in Congress, nearly every Democrat with presidential ambitions embraced more progressive issue positions, and the party ultimately nominated a candidate with a more left-wing platform than Hillary Clinton’s four years earlier.

But this history is unlikely to repeat, should Harris lose in November. 

Three factors enabled the Democrats’ progressive pivot after 2016. First, Trump’s victory and Sanders’s strong general election poll numbers briefly threw conventional political wisdom into doubt. Second, the Vermont Senator’s surprising strength in the 2016 primary led many Democratic presidential hopefuls to court his constituency. And third, the party knew that it would be running against an exceptionally unpopular Republican in 2020.

None of these conditions would hold following a Harris loss.

In 2016, most mainstream commentators understood Trump as an extremist and expected him to lose partly for that reason. After all, the right-wing demagogue praised political violence, called for ethnic discrimination, and promised to imprison his presidential rival. The fact that Trump nevertheless won the presidency naturally invited suspicions that the realm of politically tenable positions was wider than previously thought. 

This sense was reinforced by Sanders’s apparent popularity. During the 2016 campaign, polls frequently showed the socialist senator performing better against Trump than Clinton did. Taken together, Trump and Sanders’s apparent electability suggested that the benefits of moderation may have been greatly exaggerated.

In the intervening years, however, conventional political wisdom regained credibility. Democratic politicos came to appreciate that swing voters did not see Trump the same way they did: Voters saw Trump in 2016 as the most “moderate” Republican nominee since 1972. This perception wasn’t entirely baseless. Although Trump adopted some far-right positions, he also pulled his party to the left on entitlement spending and trade. At various points in his 2016 campaign, he also offered rhetorical support for center-left positions on Planned Parenthood, LGBTQ rights, and foreign policy

Meanwhile, Sanders’s poll numbers softened. By 2020, the senator’s favorability rating was underwater, with non-college-educated white voters disapproving of him by more than 25 points in some polls. Sanders remained more popular and electorally competitive than socialists were traditionally presumed to be. This likely reflected the popular appeal of many progressive positions, including a $15 minimum wage and support for organized labor. Nevertheless, in many high-quality polls in 2020, Biden performed better against Trump than Sanders did. 

The second condition that led Democrats to move left after 2016 was the apparent strength of progressives in presidential primaries. Despite Hillary Clinton’s enormous edge in party support, Sanders still managed to make the 2016 primary highly competitive. In a more open race, it stood to reason that a progressive in Sanders’s mold might have the inside track to the nomination. This led Democratic presidential hopefuls to bid against each other for the left’s support. Ultimately, that progressive fervor influenced even the race’s moderate, Joe Biden.

But Sanders and Warren both put up underwhelming performances in the 2020 primary. Once the party’s moderates unified behind Biden, he won easily. The race’s ultimate lesson was that a majority of Democratic primary voters care more about perceived electability than ideological purity. 

Further, if Harris loses — after Trump spent months assailing her for positions she took in 2020 — Democrats will take a second lesson from that primary: Getting into bidding wars for progressive support is electorally damaging. Put these two takeaways together, and the Democrats’ 2028 field following a Harris loss is likely to be more moderate than its 2020 one. 

Finally, after 2016, Democrats knew that they would be running against an exceptionally unpopular and undisciplined Republican candidate four years later. This made it possible for the party to indulge its activists and advocacy groups while remaining highly competitive in the polls. 

Assuming a second Trump presidency doesn’t end the republic, Democrats would face a non-Trump Republican in 2028, for the first time in more than a decade. One shouldn’t put it past conservatives to find an even more repellent standard-bearer, but odds are a post-Trump GOP nominee would be more capable of adhering to a message and avoiding personal scandal than the party’s current leader. And that could force Democrats to exercise greater ideological discipline. 

Juicing turnout through bold progressivism is no longer a plausible alternative to placating swing voters

In the wake of a Harris loss, progressives would also lack one weapon that they had long possessed in intra-party skirmishes over strategy: a halfway plausible theory of how Democrats can make moderation unnecessary by mobilizing their base.

The idea that Democrats could forgo winning over skeptical swing voters by increasing turnout was long central to progressive political thinking. And it’s not hard to see why: An American who would consider voting Republican is one who does not share the progressive movement’s worldview, by definition. Such a person might have progressive views on some issues (swing voters often have ideologically heterodox views), but they are unlikely to believe that the Democratic Party is insufficiently aligned with the left on all major issues. To the contrary, according to polling from the New York Times, swing voters are more likely to identify as conservative than liberal. And this is liable to be even more true of those nonpartisan voters who ultimately do cast a ballot for the GOP nominee.

Thus, if Democratic officials conclude that their party must win over some voters who backed Republicans in the last election, then those officials are liable to moderate ideologically, at least on some issues. 

In the wake of past defeats, progressives tried to dissuade Democrats from reaching that conclusion by offering an alternative path to a new electoral majority: Instead of placating Republican-curious voters, Democrats could mobilize young and nonwhite voters who already favored their party but hadn’t previously shown up at the polls. Achieving the latter task required championing a bold vision for progressive change.

This pitch always had its flaws. For one thing, persuading a Republican-leaning voter is twice as valuable as turning out a Democrat: Doing the former not only adds a vote to your party’s column, it subtracts one from your opponent’s tally. For another, evidence that nonvoting people of color were uniformly progressive has never been especially strong.

Still, the idea that mobilization could serve as a substitute for moderation had some plausibility in the 2010s. In the Obama era, Democrats thrived in high-turnout presidential elections while struggling in low-turnout midterms. The demographic groups with the lowest turnout rates — including young and Hispanic voters — were overwhelmingly Democratic.

But two developments have weakened this case in recent years. First, young and nonwhite Americans have become less reliably Democratic, according to the polls. Second, it’s become clear that the subset of young and nonwhite Americans with a low propensity to vote isn’t especially left-wing. 

In polls of the 2024 race, Democrats’ margin with young voters has fallen sharply. In some surveys, Trump has opened up a roughly 20-point lead with young men, and he has also made substantial gains with Black and Hispanic voters.

More importantly, it’s become apparent that low-propensity young and nonwhite voters — the typical targets for a progressive mobilization strategy — are particularly open to the Republican message and not particularly liberal. 

Nate Cohn of the New York Times first flagged this reality in 2019. In a study of battleground state nonvoters, Cohn found that Biden’s margin over Trump with nonvoting Black respondents was 44 points smaller than his margin with Black voters who turned out in both 2016 and 2018. 

Cohn’s analysis also found that young nonvoters who leaned Democratic had more conservative opinions on immigration, health care, and gender than young Democrats who showed up for elections. All in all, Cohn found that nonvoters’ views didn’t differ substantially from those of the electorate at large. 

Subsequent polling and election results have lent credence to these findings. In the Biden era, Democrats have performed better in low-turnout special elections than relatively high-turnout presidential and midterm elections. And polls have consistently found Trump performing better with low-propensity voters than reliable ones, a pattern that holds within the nonwhite and young subsets of the electorate. 

This doesn’t mean that Democrats have nothing to gain from mobilizing low-propensity voters who lean left. Even if nonvoting Black Americans are less Democratic than Black Americans in general, they’re still majority Democratic. To the extent the party can target its supporters — without accidentally mobilizing conservative voters — turnout operations can aid Democratic candidates.

But the fact that nonvoters aren’t overwhelmingly Democratic and that nonvoting Democrats aren’t especially progressive makes it harder to argue that mobilization can serve as a substitute for winning over swing voters, or that moderating is antithetical to increasing Democratic turnout.

For these reasons, progressives would likely have a harder time preventing Democrats from moderating, at least on some issues, after a 2024 defeat than they did after Clinton’s loss in 2016.

Trump’s tax cuts would likely constrain future Democrats’ fiscal ambitions

Kamala Harris’s Democratic Party is already less fiscally ambitious than Joe Biden’s was when he took office. 

The Democratic nominee still supports a wide range of new social programs, from increased funding for long-term care to universal pre-kindergarten to family and medical leave. But Harris is nevertheless proposing fewer progressive economic initiatives than Biden did upon taking office and has dropped the public health insurance option that the president campaigned on in 2020. The most expensive item on Harris’s fiscal agenda is the extension of Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts for households earning less than $400,000 (Harris would offset some of these costs with tax increases on corporations and high earners).

If Trump wins, it’s likely that the next Democratic president’s economic ambitions would be even more modest than Harris’s are today.

Should Trump win the presidency, Republicans will have an excellent shot of controlling both the House and Senate. In that scenario, the party would likely enact the bulk of Trump’s proposed tax cuts, adding as much as $7.5 trillion to the deficit

Even if Trump only manages to increase the deficit by a fraction of this sum, it would likely constrain moderate Democrats’ appetite for new social spending the next time the party takes power.

Already in 2021, a significantly lower national debt total rendered Sen. Joe Manchin unwilling to endorse more than a sliver of Biden’s program. Since then, following the post-pandemic spike in inflation and interest rates, Democratic wonks have grown significantly more concerned about America’s long-term fiscal trajectory. As we get closer to 2032 — when, according to projections, Social Security will cease taking in enough revenue to cover its benefits — anxieties about how the government will sustain its existing commitments will increase. 

The easiest way for Congress to cover Social Security’s shortfall in 2033 would be to pay for the program’s unfunded benefits with general revenue. But this would cost $440.1 billion that year, according to the Congressional Research Service, with the sum increasing steadily over time. To put that in context, merely sustaining Social Security’s existing benefits would cost more than all of Harris’s current proposals for expanding social welfare combined, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s score of the latter.  

By itself, Social Security’s trajectory is enough to threaten Democrats’ fiscal ambitions. Add in another round of deficit-swelling tax cuts, and Biden’s Build Back Better agenda may come to seem as politically moribund in 2029 as Bernie Sanders’s health care plans do today. 

Democrats aren’t going to party like it’s 1999

There are three caveats to this analysis. The first is that anticipating how American politics will change over four years is not easy, as any pundit who followed both the 2012 and 2016 elections can tell you.

The second is that, should Harris lose, there would probably be tight limits to the Democrats’ moderation.

Unlike during Bill Clinton’s tenure, the Democratic Party no longer has the remnants of a center-right Southern wing. And unlike during much of the 20th century, socially conservative union heads and urban machines have no clout in blue America.

Rather, the Democratic coalition is more uniformly liberal than at any point in its history, and the same can be said of the party’s major advocacy groups. The contemporary leadership of the AFL-CIO is progressive on both economic and social issues, having forfeited the organization’s historic opposition to immigration in 2000. Meanwhile, progressive foundations, think tanks, and nonprofits have extraordinary influence in the party, effectively crafting much of Biden’s domestic agenda for him. And by most accounts, the rising generation of Democratic staffers is quite left-wing, their progressive impulses reinforced and sharpened by social media’s tendency toward group polarization

The personal liberalism of Democratic elites will act as a check on any rightward pivot. Where there is no apparent political cost to upholding progressive principles, Democrats are likely to retain their current positioning or perhaps even move left. This category of issues would include abortion rights, minimum wage hikes, and pro-labor policies, among other things. 

The third caveat is that this is not intended as a case for fatalism. I think Americans have a strong interest in higher levels of legal immigration and a more expansive welfare state. Neither Social Security’s impending shortfall nor another round of tax cuts will make it impossible for Democrats to create ambitious new social welfare programs. The party could simply enact large tax increases if it found the political will. 

Progressives should try to forge that will by persuading the public of their views and discouraging Democrats from giving unnecessary ground. The ideological trajectory of America and the Democratic Party is not fixed. 

But should Harris lose, the path of least resistance will cut to the right.


Read full article on: vox.com
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Almost as soon as the blue plus sign materialized on my pregnancy test last July, the app’s algorithm magically took note and began serving me her videos.My husband and I spurred this process along, cramming, as we were, for the midterm known as “baby.” We bought books. We downloaded name apps. We fought sectarian wars over the relative correctness of rival infant-sleep strategies. The parenting internet was happy to oblige. At one point, I saw an Instagram post that explained how to talk to my kid about avocados. (Hint: Do not say “they’re good for you!”) It was all so confusing, and I desperately wanted to do it right.Chelsey seemed to offer a step-by-step parenting plan. In one video, she shows just how solicitous gentle parents should be toward their children. 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If your child doesn’t respond when you apologize, Chelsey says, that’s fine—it’s on you to repair the relationship.[Read: How raising a child is like writing a novel]Chelsey also explains how a parent should handle a child screaming about her jacket. Instead of yelling back, she says, you should speak in a whisper and carry the jacket yourself, or stuff it into their backpack. “Frankly,” she says, “I would not force a kid to put a jacket on.”Watching the video, I tried to imagine my parents apologizing to me after I refused to do something they said. This was difficult, because my parents have never apologized to me, and also, until I was well into my 20s, I never refused to do anything they said.Russian parents like mine, who believe that children should always listen to their parents and that getting cold is a death sentence, would have long ago hit “Unfollow.” Indeed, when I recently told my cousin about gentle parenting, he scoffed. “This is the road to prison,” he said.I don’t have many parenting role models who aren’t Russian. Most of my American friends don’t have kids. I myself grew up in the ’90s in West Texas, where a “gentle” punishment meant detention instead of a beating. I want to do better by my son—if only I can figure out how. Left: Chelsey brushes her daughter’s hair in the morning before school. Right: One of her daughters holds a chicken in the school garden. (Jenna Garrett for The Atlantic) Chelsey and her husband, Samuel, live with the girls in an airy house tucked into a redwood forest north of Santa Cruz, California. Their days consist of work-from-home sprints interrupted by taxiing their kids to school and activities, a lifestyle that’s common in their area.In 2018, Chelsey, who has a Ph.D. in education, was working as a research associate at Stanford, parenting three children under 3, and also helping raise her teenage niece, who had come from Mexico to stay with the family for a while. By her own description, she was flailing. One morning, all three of the little girls fought over the one purple spoon in a set of rainbow-colored spoons. Chelsey tried suggesting the yellow spoon, or the red spoon, or that they take turns with the purple spoon. No dice. “It was like, everybody all crying all the time,” she told me.Noticing her struggles, Robin, Chelsey’s mom, who runs a school for children with behavioral problems, thought Chelsey might benefit from taking a parenting class she offered, in which she taught parents how to handle challenging children. Perhaps sensing how such a proposal would land with her own adult daughter, she had Chelsey’s cousin bring up the idea. “You can’t suggest anything to your daughter,” Robin told me.Chelsey was skeptical. But she now says the course “changed everything.” Previously, she had tried to learn about gentle parenting—which is also sometimes called respectful parenting, and arose in the middle of the 20th century out of concerns that parents were too harsh—from reading books, but she didn’t understand how to put the ideas into practice. The class made Chelsey realize that she was speaking to her kids negatively much of the time—stop hitting your sister! Often, what the kids needed was not more instructions but what she calls “connection,” or feeling loved and seen by their parents. (The correct way to resolve the spoon fight, Chelsey says, was to validate each child’s reality, saying something like “You really wanted the purple spoon. The orange spoon doesn’t taste good.” The child might still pout, but that’s okay.)Chelsey and Robin both say that Chelsey and her brother were parented gently—Robin never yelled, for instance. But there was a difference between experiencing gentle parenting herself and seeing how it could apply to her own kids.After the class was over, Robin never said “I told you so.” That’s something “you never do as a mother,” she told me. One of Robin’s first recommendations is to rid your interactions with your child of these types of “zingers.” They feel like an “eff you,” she said. (I always thought that was the point.)Chelsey left her job at Stanford to help her mother teach a course called Guiding Cooperation. Together, they grew that course into a business. They charge a fee that starts at $5,000 per family for a 12-week parenting program that includes video lessons along with group and individual coaching. At any given time, the program includes about 40 to 50 families, they said, whose kids typically range in age from 2 to 13.In one Zoom group-coaching session I observed, Chelsey asked her parent-clients to close their eyes and imagine sitting at a table with all the materials they’d need to work on a beloved project. “Around the table are all of the people that are the perfectly right people to do this project with,” she said softly. “Maybe you’re creating; maybe there’s bowls of yarn, or computers, laptops.”Then, suddenly, she started clapping loudly. “Get the laptops, get everything! There’s a giant fire! Take that out of the room!” she yelled.Chelsey asked the parents how that felt. They said alarming, panicky, and angry. Chelsey explained that many children are in this state when parents try to transition them from one activity to another too quickly. “The same body sensations happen for our kids,” she explained.This is a recurring theme of Chelsey and Robin’s advice—that kids have many of the same emotions adults do. When they’re overwhelmed, they sometimes cry and scream. Don’t you? When punished, they don’t think about what they’ve done; they stew.The goal of their programs is to decrease tantrums, but not through punishments or even rewards like sticker charts (too transactional, and kids often stop caring about the stickers). Chelsey says she has never given her girls a time-out. Rather than compliance, Chelsey and Robin seek cooperation—meaning the child does what you say because they want to do it. “I don’t even use the word obey or disobey,” Robin told me.Instead of ordering kids to stop doing something, Chelsey advocates “positive opposites”—telling kids what they can do instead. Don’t instruct them not to jump on the couch; tell them to jump on the trampoline. One of Chelsey’s daughters in the playroom (Jenna Garrett for The Atlantic) Praise for good behavior is a part of Chelsey’s philosophy, but she warns that this, too, requires care. Many parents go with “good job,” for instance. But Chelsey argues that this is confusing, because children don’t have jobs. Instead, she suggests commenting on specific things children do well, such as “You came down to dinner on time! Cool!” and “You’re sitting next to your sister keeping your hands on your own body? That’s awesome!”During transitions, she recommends talking to younger kids in a sing-songy voice and in a kind of broken English: Okay, water bottle in backpack, now we’re walking to car. She says it’s easier for kids to process information this way. Chelsey and Robin suggest trying these strategies three to five times before switching tactics if they don’t seem to be working.Psychologists I interviewed said that some of these strategies are evidence-based and effective. Most kids respond well to praise, for example, and tactics like singing and offering alternatives can make it more fun for kids to do what they’re told. However, they argue that consequences are also important, and that showering kids with positive attention when they misbehave can backfire. Time-out, in particular, has been proved to change behavior and improve academic performance, says Corey Lieneman, a clinical child psychologist at the University of Nebraska who co-wrote a book about time-out. For older kids, she told me, taking away privileges such as video games is effective—and is, in a way, a form of time-out. Lieneman also said there’s nothing wrong with using rewards, because “no little kid is going to just want to do all of the things that we want them to do.”[Read: No spanking, no time-out, no problems]Chelsey and Robin admit that their method can be difficult, but they argue that this is just how much effort it takes to be a parent—especially when you have strong-willed kids. They push back on the typical reassurance that all a parent really needs is to be “good enough”—the early-child psychologist D. W. Winnicott’s notion that a parent need not be perfect, but “ordinary devoted.” “Good-enough parenting is not actually good enough for all children,” Chelsey says in another TikTok video. If you have a more challenging child, she says, “you’re gonna have to be more intentional, you’re gonna have to be more careful with your language, you’re gonna have to spend more time co-regulating. And honestly, what a gift that is, to have a child who demands more.” Left: Playroom fun. Right: One of Chelsey’s daughters reaches for a clay bird at school. (Jenna Garrett for The Atlantic) There’s no way to objectively measure Chelsey’s success. She and her mom say that no one has ever asked for their money back, and that most parents see good results.But some parents may struggle to raise their kids this way. For one thing, although Chelsey argues that you would feel less busy if you yelled at your kids less, some parents work so much that there’s no time to prepare a special apology dinner. The U.S. surgeon general recently deemed parental stress a public-health concern, in part because of the sheer amount of time this kind of intensive parenting requires.I spoke with one mom, Katerina, who hasn’t taken Chelsey’s class but who learned about gentle parenting through her own reading. (She asked to go by her first name only because she has a public-facing role at work.) For a while, she said, she tried to be an ultra-gentle parent with her two girls, but she found it hard to find time to validate all of their feelings and still get dinner on the table. “It requires a certain level of commitment and capacity that I think most moms don’t have,” she told me. She ultimately landed on trying to talk through her kids’ feelings most of the time, but also sometimes using rewards and consequences, such as taking away her 9-year-old’s chocolate for lying. “She accepted her fate,” she told me.And although children’s emotions are obviously important, some parenting researchers feel that gentle parenting doesn’t sufficiently emphasize how kids’ actions can affect other people. What if, in refusing to put her jacket on, the child made her sister late for school too? (Robin and Chelsey counter that they are teaching kids how to be empathetic by modeling empathy toward them.) “Societies all around the world also focus on how your actions and your words affect other people’s feelings,” Michaeleen Doucleff, an NPR science correspondent and the author of Hunt, Gather, Parent: What Ancient Cultures Can Teach Us About the Lost Art of Raising Happy, Helpful Little Humans, told me. Some gentle-parenting experts promote empathizing with kids by saying things like I know, it’s so hard to share. “Well, is it? Is it hard to share?” Doucleff said. Do you actually want your kid to think that?Rebecah Freeling, another Bay Area parenting coach, who specializes in kids with behavioral problems, says that gentle parenting can leave some parents struggling to set boundaries. What happens if you’re validating feelings and heaping on praise, but your kid still does drugs behind your back?Chelsey says kids should never be punished, other than through occasional “natural and logical consequences”—like if a child throws and breaks the TV remote and it will no longer turn on the TV. Even something egregious, such as a teenager skipping school, Chelsey says should be handled by trying to determine, “What is going on at school, that you are not going?”The most obvious problem with this approach is that it doesn’t adequately prepare children for the real world, where a boss is less likely to ask “What is going on at work, that you are not going?” than she is to fire you if you don’t show up.[Read: Is it wrong to tell kids to apologize?]But children, Chelsey counters, “are going to learn to be responsible adults when their nervous systems are honored.” She also seems to have a rather rosy view of corporate America: If you’re failing at work, “I hope your boss is supporting you to get back to a place of regulation so that you can do the work.” Chelsey and her children in the school garden (Jenna Garrett for The Atlantic) In Freeling’s view, however, it’s acceptable for a teen to, say, lose a preordained amount of screen time if they won’t fulfill basic responsibilities. Some parents who have tried gentle parenting come to Freeling saying that they feel bullied by their kids, or like they can’t ever say no. Some, Freeling said, sound like they’re describing an abusive relationship with a spouse: I do everything he asks, and he’s still hitting me. Sometimes, even connecting with your kid can start to feel transactional—I’m connecting. Why aren’t you listening? One mother told Freeling that after she stopped trying to apply gentle parenting, “she could now free herself from the belief that she wasn’t loving her child right.”When I asked Robin if people have trouble remembering the techniques she and Chelsey teach, she said, “One hundred percent.” Indeed, their tactics seem hard to recall, and to execute, when everyone is tired and hungry and preoccupied—so much so that even Chelsey sometimes deviates from her own advice. She says she doesn’t make her kids share, but when I was with them, one of the girls tried to call dibs on a bag of potato chips, and Chelsey told her to give some to her sisters. When one of the girls began eating cantaloupe with a ladle, Chelsey told her, “Not for eating, honey,” which is not a positive opposite. “It would have been stronger had I said, ‘We eat with a spoon,’” she acknowledged later.After a few days with Chelsey and Robin, though, I came around to the view that their work is more than just a series of expensive scripts that you’ll strain to remember mid-meltdown. I realized that sometimes the point of this kind of program is to be not a permanent cure but a kind of ongoing emotional support. Watching Chelsey’s group-coaching sessions, I noticed that many parents seemed worried they were the only ones who couldn’t get their kids to behave. One mom, whose child had ripped something off the wall on the way out of preschool, said she feels “shame around the perceived idea that I can’t control my kid.”As dozens of people have already warned me, parenting is the “hardest job you’ll ever have,” and I got the sense that, for her clients and TikTok followers, Chelsey is shouldering some of this intensely personal toil. There is something about Chelsey that makes people feel like it’s all going to be okay—you’re going to do better than your parents, but you’ll also mess up a lot, and that’s normal.“In the ’90s, gentle parenting was, like, smacking your kid with the spoon instead of your hand,” said Mary Brock, one of the parents on the call. Later, she told me she likes how Chelsey and Robin listen to her, and give her encouragement without judgment. “I wish I had a gentle parent,” Brock added. “That’s what this class does for me.”Chelsey often says that the first step to calming your kids is to calm yourself. Maybe gentle parenting, then, is less about soothing kids than it is about soothing their parents.
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This is what came out when I prompted Canva’s AI tool to create a “view from cafe in autumn, quaint street, foliage, coffee, aesthetic, small town.” Interesting how it placed said foliage indoors! | Image generated by Rebecca Jennings using Canva A rain-soaked street at dusk, pictured through the window of a coffee shop. String lights hang between old brick buildings, a church steeple in the distance. In the foreground, a candlelit table with mugs of coffee, tea, and … a corked glass jug of beige liquid? Next to a floating hunk of sourdough? And also the table is covered in water? This is the platonic ideal of “autumn,” according to one photo that’s gone viral both on X, where it’s been seen almost 12 million times, and Pinterest, where it’s the very first picture that comes up when you search “fall inspo.” At first glance, you’d be forgiven for thinking it’s a tiny street in Edinburgh or the part of Boston that looks like Gilmore Girls. But like so many other viral autumnal vibes photos this year, the image, with its nonsensical details and uncanny aura, appears to be AI-generated.  AI “autumn vibes” imagery makes up a ton of the most popular fall photos on Pinterest right now, from a moody outdoor book display on yet another rain-soaked street to a sunlit farmer’s market to several instances of coffee cups perched on tousled bedspreads. All of them appear normal until you zoom in and realize the books don’t contain actual letters and the pillows are actually made of bath mat material.  Dreaming of a wet table with three types of bread and a broccoli latte ☺️?? https://t.co/uIqRCRlqcC— mj slenderman (@othermiike) September 25, 2024 It’s not just limited to Pinterest or “vibes”: AI-generated content is now infiltrating social media in ways that have a meaningful impact on people’s lives. Knitters and crocheters hoping to craft fall sweaters are being inundated with nonsensical AI patterns and inspo images on Reddit. An entirely fake restaurant has gained 75,000 followers on Instagram by claiming to be “number one in Austin” and posting over-the-top seasonal food items like a croissant shaped like Moo Deng. Meanwhile, folks hoping to curl up with a cozy fantasy novel or a bedtime story for their kids are confronted with a library of Chat GPT-generated nonsense “written” by nonexistent authors on the Kindle bookstore, while their YouTube algorithms serve them bot-generated fall ambiance videos. Autumn, it seems, is being eaten by AI.  Not everyone is — and please excuse the following pun — falling for it. When the fake café photo went viral on X, it caused a deluge of quote-tweets asking why the hell anyone needed to use AI when you could just as easily post one of the many actual photos taken in real cities that do, in fact, look like this.  The crux of the issue now is the sheer scale of it: Scammers and spammers can unleash a barrage of text and images with the click of a button Colloquially, all this garbage is widely considered “slop,” a term for the spammy AI-generated images, text, and videos that clog up internet platforms and make it more difficult and unpleasant than ever to be online. In reality, this moment of peak slop is the natural culmination of platforms that incentivize virality and engagement at all costs — no matter how low-quality the content happens to be. But the crux of the issue now is the sheer scale of it: Scammers and spammers can unleash a barrage of text and images with the click of a button, so that searches for legitimate information or a casual scroll through social media require even more time and effort to bypass the junk. Misinformation about crucial news events and election coverage is spreading on platforms. Academic and literary publications are being spammed with low-quality submissions, making it harder to suss out genuine creative or scholarly work.  Of course, there are more urgent concerns regarding the rise of generative AI: its enormous energy consumption, for one, or the rampant creation of deepfake porn used to harass and abuse women. Considering all that, it’s easy to look at cute AI-generated fall pictures on Pinterest as a relative non-issue, a side effect of a technology that could (arguably) greatly benefit humanity.  But as Jason Koebler, co-founder of 404 Media, a publication covering tech, explains, these images normalize AI slop and desensitize our ability to discern what’s real and what’s fake. “The clogging of feeds and of search results is not just a side effect, but a main effect of all of this,” he told me. “It’s harder for a journalist writing an article to break through, or an artist painting a picture, or a musician making a song when they’re competing with not just a bunch of other humans making stuff, but humans who are using this automatic creation machine to make things at a scale that is impossible otherwise.” The problem is so bad that tools used to track the human usage of certain words online are no longer effective due to the prevalence of large-language models.  AI slop typically comes from people trying to make money by going viral on social media. Platforms like Facebook, Instagram, X, and TikTok all have programs that pay creators directly based on how much engagement their content receives, and AI makes it easier than ever to produce and test that content. That’s led to an entire cottage industry of people all over the world who teach paid courses on how to produce highly engaging AI slop, sharing information on the best prompts to generate the most attention-getting posts. On Facebook, AI posters say they make around $100 per 1,000 likes, and some TikTokers are making $5,000 per month at their side hustles. It’s a decent amount for anyone but especially lucrative in countries where many AI content hustlers are based, such as India, Vietnam, and the Philippines. One Kenya-based creator told New York magazine that his process involves asking ChatGPT something like, “WRITE ME 10 PROMPT picture OF JESUS WHICH WILLING BRING HIGH ENGAGEMENT ON FACEBOOK” and then plugging those prompts into an image generator like Leonardo.ai and Midjourney.  Rather than being worried about their platforms being overrun with low-quality engagement bait, Meta and X seem entirely unconcerned and even supportive of it. “There seems to be very little interest from any platform in taking action about this stuff,” says Koebler. “They are actively, in some cases, generating it themselves, and being like, ‘Look how cool this technology is!’”  Both Meta and X have invested heavily in AI, offering tools for users to add to the ever-increasing deluge of slop on their platforms. Meta’s official account even posted an AI photo of the northern lights over San Francisco on Threads — its top reply is a NASA engineer explaining why images like this spread false information and “muddy the waters of reality.” AI slop will continue to exist as long as people are finding ways to make money from it, just like any practice on social media, from the merely irksome to the actually dangerous. Koebler guesses that AI spam got so popular because some of the platforms cracked down on content stolen from real creators, making AI the second-easiest option for spammers.  “People are just posting whatever they’re getting out of these AI generator machines, regardless of the level of quality,” he says, “because of the ways that virality and social media algorithms work, even if you have the world’s greatest piece of content, it might not go viral, whereas something that is not very good might, just because you won the luck of the draw.” There’s a particular irony with AI-generated images of fall vibes, considering fall is disappearing from many parts of the US and AI emissions have become a major contributor to climate change.  And it’s not as if the internet is starving for aesthetically pleasing fall inspo: Every September, social media is flooded with images of pumpkin-strewn stoops, cozy blankets on comfy sofas, or small towns covered in yellow and orange leaves. For the past few years, we’ve christened these mini-moments online with names: Meg Ryan fall, which had its own outfit and playlist recommendations, or Christian girl autumn, where people unleashed their inner white woman by putting on wide-brimmed hats and knee-high boots to grab pumpkin spice lattes. (This year, it seems like the Gilmores’ fictional Connecticut town of Stars Hollow is providing much of the inspiration.)  It’s all very cutesy and wholesome, but even this type of human-made content is increasingly little more than a plot to get viewers to click on affiliate links to Amazon storefronts or ultra-cheap TikTok Shop junk. In this way, they’re not all that dissimilar from AI slop: Platforms are encouraging their users to be professional salespeople, whether they’re hawking unethically made clothing and home goods or spamming audiences with AI-generated inspo photos. Both are low-quality, quick-to-produce types of content that drive engagement and, therefore, revenue, even when regular users say they hate it.  Part of the joy in scrolling through fall photos, after all, is knowing that these places exist and that you could theoretically visit them, that the world fundamentally changes in autumn, and that there’s only a small window of time to marvel at how beautiful it all is. An AI-generated image represents the precise opposite: It’s just one of the infinite possible arrangements of pixels for machines to keep churning out indefinitely. 
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