Israel killed Hamas’s leader. What happens next?

The killing of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas and architect of the October 7 attacks, could be a pivotal moment in the war in Gaza and the wider conflict in the Middle East. It might even be an opportunity to end the fighting — but only if both sides of the war treat it that way. 

According to preliminary Israeli media reports, Sinwar, along with two other Hamas fighters, was killed on Wednesday in the southern Gaza city of Rafah when Israel Defense Forces (IDF) opened fire on a building where the three were holed up. The troops then ordered an airstrike against the building, collapsing it. When IDF troops entered what was left of the building on Thursday, they noticed that one of the killed Hamas members looked like Sinwar. The body’s identity was confirmed by DNA testing on Thursday. 

While Sinwar has been described as a “dead man walking” by Israeli officials for months, he was reportedly not the target of the IDF operation and it’s very surprising that he was apparently above ground and accompanied by only a few fellow fighters. For months, US and Israeli officials have said Sinwar was likely deep underground in Hamas’s tunnel network, surrounded by hostages effectively acting as human shields. Israeli authorities say they believe Sinwar had been in a tunnel with six hostages who were executed by their captors in late August, though it’s not clear when exactly Sinwar left. 

What will his death mean for Hamas? Jonathan Lord, director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said that with Hamas already severely degraded after a year of Israeli assaults, Sinwar’s death, alone, would likely result in “no change to Hamas’s military capabilities.” But, he added, “politically, Sinwar’s death leaves a gaping hole in the movement, at least in the near term.”

Sinwar, explained

Born in the Gaza city of Khan Younis in 1962, Sinwar had been a member of Hamas since its origination in 1987, and founded its internal security service, known as the Majd. He acquired a reputation for brutally enforcing loyalty to the movement by murdering and torturing suspected traitors and collaborators. 

Sinwar was arrested for murder and kidnapping in 1988 and sentenced to four life terms in Israel. During his time in prison, he reportedly learned Hebrew and consumed Israeli media and books to learn more about his adversary. Sinwar was able to put those lessons to use after he became one of more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in 2011 in exchange for the captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. 

Six years after his release, he became Hamas’s leader in Gaza. Within the Hamas leadership, he was considered among the least willing to make political compromises with Israel and the closest to Iran. Sinwar was reportedly the main architect of the October 7 attacks and was the one who picked its official name, Operation al-Aqsa Flood.

After Hamas’s global political leader Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in an Israeli bombing in Tehran in July, Sinwar took over that role as well. Over the past year, Israeli and American authorities have often described Sinwar as the main obstacle to a ceasefire. 

Sinwar was committed to full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, and less willing to compromise than Hamas leaders based outside of Palestine. In early October, the New York Times reported that American intelligence assessed that Sinwar did not believe he would survive the conflict, wanted to see Israel embroiled in a larger war in the Middle East, and was not interested in reaching a compromise. All of which, it seems, has been proved correct.

What’s next for Hamas — and the war in Gaza

It’s not immediately clear who will take Sinwar’s place. Many of Hamas’s senior leaders and Sinwar’s top lieutenants have also been killed over the past years. In terms of global leaders, the most obvious candidate, if only because he’s the most prominent Hamas figure still alive, is Khaled Meshaal, a founding member of the group who was chair of Hamas’s political bureau from 1996 until 2017, when he was replaced by Haniyeh. Meshaal is currently based in Qatar. It’s also possible Hamas might choose a younger face from within its politburo — the main decision-making body. 

For Israel, Sinwar’s death is a major political and strategic victory. “This is our bin Laden moment,” Nimrod Novik, former senior adviser to the late Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, told Vox. Novik described the killing as a tremendous opportunity for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “to declare victory” and push for a ceasefire deal and hostage release deal along the lines of the one Israel offered in late May, and which Hamas accepted — albeit with some key alterations — in early July. Talks over that deal eventually collapsed when Netanyahu added additional conditions.  

“The guy that you, Bibi, kept saying is blocking the deal is gone,” said Novik, a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum. “Can you do something creative?”

The message from Washington was similar. “This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza,” ⁦Vice President and Democratic Presidential nominee Kamala Harris said in a brief statement. 

For the moment, however, that doesn’t seem to be how Netanyahu sees it. “Today, evil took a heavy blow — the mission ahead of us is still unfinished,” the prime minister said on Thursday. 

For now, attention turns to the remaining hostages held in Gaza, with many families fearful that more may be killed in retaliation for Sinwar’s death. Officially, Hamas is believed to be holding 101 of the 254 hostages abducted on October 7, though Israeli authorities believe as many as half of those may be dead. 

Sinwar’s death comes at a time when Israel has increasingly been shifting its political attention and military resources toward its war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria as well as its escalating direct conflict with Iran, though strikes in Gaza — including a deadly one earlier this week on a hospital where displaced people were sheltering — have continued.  

Netanyahu has also reportedly been considering a plan proposed by several former generals to turn northern Gaza into a closed military zone, evacuating its entire civilian population and starving out any who remain. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has denied that Israel is moving forward with this so-called starvation plan, which is opposed by the US. 

On Monday, the US issued a statement telling Israel to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza — particularly by allowing in more aid shipments, which have reportedly slowed to a trickle, or risk the supply of US weapons. On the other hand, the statement came on the same day Israel received a new top-of-the-line missile defense system. 

This wouldn’t be the first time the White House — and Netanyahu’s Israeli critics — have hoped the prime minister would “take the win” in Gaza. In a White House statement back in May, Biden assured Israelis that “Hamas no longer is capable of carrying out another October 7” and that the pursuit of “total victory” would not bring the hostages home or “bring Israel lasting security.”

Perhaps Sinwar’s killing will change the calculus of the Israeli government. But it’s also possible that Netanyahu and his senior officials might see this as vindication — if they’d heeded Biden’s caution back in May, Sinwar would presumably still be alive. And of course, hopes of a ceasefire will dim further if hostages are killed by Hamas in retaliation. 

One thing is for sure, the war in Gaza, which has killed more than 40,000 people, is back at the center of attention. The question is whether that means it will finally be brought to an end — or at least a pause — or if a more-or-less permanent reoccupation of the territory is in store.