Will the Mark Robinson revelations tank Republicans in a key battleground state?

Mark Robinson, the GOP nominee for governor in North Carolina endorsed by former President Donald Trump, was already known to be an extreme right-wing candidate who appeared to be alienating voters in a key battleground state. New revelations about his inflammatory comments on a porn site and his sexual exploits have now shaken even some of his Republican colleagues. 

CNN reported on Thursday that Robinson regularly posted on a porn website’s message board between 2008 and 2012. In those posts, he identified himself as a “black NAZI!”, supported a revival of slavery, described himself as a “perv” for enjoying transgender porn, and admitted to “peeping” on women in public showers as a teenager. The posts were found on the site “Nude Africa.”

Despite now supporting legislation that would ban abortion at around six weeks of pregnancy, he also said on the forum that he would not care if a celebrity had an abortion, though he would “wanna see the sex tape!” And though he would become North Carolina’s first Black governor if elected, he referred to Martin Luther King Jr. as a “commie bastard.”

Robinson’s email has also been connected to an account on Ashley Madison, an online dating website for people seeking to have an affair.

Robinson, North Carolina’s current lieutenant governor, denied writing the posts, and his campaign said he has not made an Ashley Madison account.

Nevertheless, several North Carolina Republicans, including some running in competitive races this fall, subsequently pressured him to drop out of the contest to succeed incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, who is term-limited. He has opted to stay in the race, in which he is running behind his Democratic rival, North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, by between 5 and 14 percentage points in polls conducted over the last month.

In doing so, Robinson might drag down not just down-ballot Republicans in a closely divided purple state, but also potentially Trump. 

“We have few examples of reverse coattails where a down-ballot candidate hurts the top of the ticket,” Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster, told Vox. “But if anyone could do it, it’s this character.”

Robinson is extreme even for MAGA

The current scandals don’t mark the first time Robinson has been mired in controversy. 

He has hurled hateful remarks at everyone from Michelle Obama to the survivors of the Parkland school shooting. He’s called the LGBTQ community “filth.” He threatened to use his AR-15 against the government if it “gets too big for its britches,” and he wants to outlaw all abortions as well as return to a time when women couldn’t vote. He’s also ridiculed the Me Too movement, women generally, and climate change.

It seems Robinson is willing to entertain all manner of conspiracy theories, too. He’s a Holocaust denier and has a history of antisemitic remarks. He’s suggested that the 1969 moon landing might have been fake, that 9/11 was an “inside job,” that the music industry is run by Satan, and that billionaire Democratic donor George Soros orchestrated the Boko Haram kidnappings of school girls in 2014.

In spite of all of this, Robinson was not only able to win his party’s nomination for the state’s most powerful position, but he did so by a margin of more than 45 percent over his rivals. The other Republican candidates, trial lawyer Bill Graham and state treasurer Dale Folwell, raised concerns about Robinson’s electability, but ultimately neither could compete with his name recognition nor his MAGA bona fides in a state that twice voted for Trump.

Will Robinson hurt the GOP’s chances this fall in North Carolina?

Robinson might function as an ideal foil for Democrats — not just in the governor’s race, but also in the presidential and down-ballot races. Robinson might struggle to capture the more than 35 percent of GOP voters who opposed him in a contentious primary. Republican leaders certainly seem concerned.

“We knew that [he was extreme], but I still think the revelations over the last 24 hours are stunning,” former Rep. David Price (D-NC) told Vox. “I believe the Republican leaders know that as well. A corner has been turned in terms of Robinson being able to count on even the most faithful Republican supporters.” 

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) told the Hill that the reports about Robinson are “not good.” And Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said they were “very concerning.” 

“My hope is that [the] lieutenant governor can reassure the people of North Carolina that the allegations aren’t true,” he said. “He said they’re not true. I think he needs to have the opportunity to explain to the people in North Carolina exactly how these allegations aren’t true.”

The fact that even Republicans are distancing themselves from Robinson suggests that the tide may turn further in Democrats’ favor in North Carolina. 

That doesn’t mean, however, that Robinson will deliver Democrats a major victory. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are practically tied in the state, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. And Republican candidates have won three presidential elections in North Carolina since Barack Obama surprisingly took the state in 2008 — including Trump twice. The state has stayed on the red side of purple, though it does have a tradition of split-ticket voting. That helped power Cooper’s two election wins and has added to the belief that the state may be in reach for Democrats. 

“I don’t think celebration is called for because so much more is at stake than just the governor’s race,” Price said. “We know how tight this is.”